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Oil Rallies Near $99 as Trump Hardline Stance Damps Iran De-escalation Hopes

WTI crude oil (CLc1) surged back toward $99.00 a barrel in early London trade on Thursday, erasing prior session losses after US President Donald Trump’s prime-time address hardened rhetoric on Iran and dimmed prospects for an imminent diplomatic resolution. Brent crude (LCOc1) climbed 1.8% to $102.15 a barrel, tracking the US benchmark higher as traders priced in renewed escalation risks in the Strait of Hormuz.

WTI Crude Oil - 5 Days Chart

WTI Crude Oil – 5 Days Chart

Market Snapshot

WTI (CLc1) traded up 2.4% at $98.92 a barrel as of 10:15 a.m. London, rebounding sharply from a one-week low near $92.50 touched during Wednesday’s New York session. The May contract had settled down 1.2% the prior session on de-escalation optimism before Trump’s speech reversed flows. Brent (LCOc1) outperformed slightly, with the WTI-Brent spread narrowing to about $3.20 as Middle East supply risks premium re-emerged.

Risk Flows and Correlated Moves

The oil rally fed through to energy equities, with the S&P 500 Energy Sector (SP500-45) up 1.9% in pre-market trade, led by Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Chevron (CVX.N). Safe-haven flows supported gold (GCc1), which held steady near $4,800 an ounce after intraday volatility erased earlier gains. The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened 0.4% to 99.85 as revived Fed rate-hike bets on inflationary oil impulses offset risk-off bid flows.

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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