Market Highlight 24/11/2025
U.S. stocks rose last Friday as investors increased bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next month. However, concerns over stretched valuations in tech stocks weighed on sentiment, leading all three major indices to finish the week lower. The Dow fell 1.9% for the week, the S&P 500 lost about 2%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.7%. Fed’s Williams delivered dovish remarks, prompting traders to boost expectations of a December rate cut. The U.S. Dollar Index still touched its highest level since late May and recorded its largest weekly gain in six weeks. The EUR/USD slipped 0.16% to 1.1511, down 1% on the week.
Gold prices fell on Friday, with prices dropping more than 1% during the day, as spot gold closed down 0.28% at $4,065.39 per ounce and recorded a weekly loss of 0.34%. Oil prices declined by about 1%, reaching a one-month low and falling around 3% for the week, as U.S. efforts to promote a Russia-Ukraine peace deal may increase global crude supply, while ongoing uncertainty over U.S. interest rates continued to dampen risk sentiment.
Key Outlook 24/11/2025
Markets will face a series of significant economic releases and central bank events this week, likely driving notable volatility. The U.S. Q3 GDP report and the PCE price index will together influence expectations about whether the Fed will implement another rate cut in December. Meanwhile, the UK Autumn Budget will be pivotal in shaping the outlook for the British pound and the Bank of England’s December rate-cut plans. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision and speeches by ECB President Lagarde will also be carefully observed by markets.
Key Data and Events Today:
Japan Holiday
- 17:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate NOV **
- 22:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index NOV **
Tomorrow:
- 15:00 EU GERMANY YoY Final Q3 **
- 21:30 US Retail Sales MoM SEP **
- 23:00 US CB Consumer Confidence NOV **
- 23:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM OCT **
- 23:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index NOV **
Markets Analysis 24/11/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1539/1.1562
- Support: 1.1467/1.1445
EUR/USD stayed pressured as the dollar hit a 5-month high, while soft Eurozone manufacturing data limited any rebound despite Fed-cut bets rising after Williams’s dovish remarks. Technically, the pair is failing to reclaim 1.1539 and keeps drifting lower toward 1.1467 support, with rallies likely capped below 1.1520.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3137/1.3168
- Support: 1.3040/1.3009
GBP/USD weakened as the stronger US dollar and lingering UK growth worries capped upside, with markets cautious ahead of this week’s UK budget announcement. Technically, the pair continues to struggle below the 1.3137 resistance level, and a failure to reclaim it may trigger another drop toward the 1.3040 support zone.
USDJPY
· Resistance 157.39/157.89
- Support: 156.25/155.75
USD/JPY softened after Japan’s finance minister warned against “excessive volatility,” triggering short covering on yen positions. However, broader USD strength kept the pair elevated, with price holding above 156.25 support. Technically, USD/JPY may attempt a rebound toward 157.39–157.89 if 156.25 support holds.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 58.52/58.85
- Support: 57.01/56.69
WTI hovered near $57.9 as rising optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace talks fueled concerns of future supply increases, while a stronger US dollar further pressured demand. Technically, prices remain capped below the $58.52 resistance level, and a failure to reclaim this zone risks a renewed drop toward $57.01 support.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4108/4161
- Support: 3981/3939
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 51.28/51.74
- Support: 48.98/48.60
Gold steadied around $4,070 after Fed’s Williams signaled possible “near-term” rate cuts, pushing December cut odds to 74%. However, stronger equities and weak Asian physical demand capped upside. Technically, XAU/USD remains trapped inside a contracting triangle between $4,108 resistance and $3,981 support, with a breakout on either side likely defining the next directional move.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 46593/46945
- Support: 45452/45105
The Dow futures recovered on Friday after Williams’s dovish remarks boosted risk appetite, though the index still ended the week lower amid volatility in tech valuations. Technically, price is holding below the 46,593–46,945 resistance zone, and failure to reclaim this area keeps the risk tilted toward a retest of 45,452 support.
NAS100
- Resistance: 24728/24961
- Support: 23741/23445
The NAS100 rebounded on Friday as hopes of Fed easing supported tech stocks, but overall sentiment remained fragile after a third straight weekly decline. AI-related valuation concerns continued to limit upside momentum. Technically, the index remains capped between 24,728 and 24,961, with a lower high suggesting a possible retest of 23,741 support unless price breaks above 24,728.
BTC
- Resistance: 90893/94057
- Support: 83759/80649
Bitcoin remained weak around $86,700–$89,300 after plunging to $83,000, as mixed U.S. jobs data reduced December Fed-cut expectations and triggered further deleveraging. On-chain data shows a profoundly negative MVRV, implying short-term undervaluation, but technical resistance at $90,893–$94,057 remains strong — failure to reclaim it could send BTC back toward $83,759.
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