Market Highlight 06/11/2025
U.S. stocks rebounded on Wednesday, with all three major indexes closing higher as concerns over stretched tech valuations eased. Optimistic corporate earnings and stronger-than-expected economic data boosted investor risk appetite. The Dow Jones rose 0.48%, the S&P 500 gained 0.37%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.65%. U.S. services activity climbed to an eight-month high, while the U.S. Dollar Index held near a five-month peak at 100.16. The stronger data helped ease worries over the economy and labor market, leading investors to reassess the likelihood of another Fed rate cut this year.
Spot gold climbed over 1% overnight despite stronger-than-expected U.S. private employment data, settling 1.3% higher at $3,982.4 per ounce. Oil prices, however, fell more than 1% to a two-week low on concerns about a potential global supply glut, though signs of resilient U.S. fuel demand limited further losses.
Key Outlook 06/11/2025
The Bank of England (BoE) is set to announce its latest rate decision, with markets broadly expecting the benchmark rate to remain unchanged at 4.00%, marking the first slowdown in the easing cycle that began last year. However, consensus is not absolute: some institutions argue that markets are underestimating the probability of a rate cut this time. With unemployment rising and GDP growth continuing to stagnate, divisions among policymakers may once again lead to a split vote within the BoE. The tighter fiscal stance outlined in the November budget further strengthens the case for a more accommodative monetary policy. Markets are already pricing in another potential rate cut in December, meaning the BoE’s tone on future easing will be crucial for the British pound (GBP) and the UK100 index.
Key Data and Events Today
- 08:30 JP Services & Composite PMI Final OCT **
- 15:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production MoM SEP **
- 18:00 EU Retail Sales MoM SEP **
- 20:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision & Meeting Minutes ***
Tomorrow:
- 11:00 CN Balance of Trade OCT **
- 09:30 CA Unemployment Rate OCT **
- 23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel NOV ***
Markets Analysis 06/11/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1542/1.1570
- Support: 1.1449/1.1427
The dollar stayed firm near a five-month high after strong ADP data, keeping EUR/USD capped around 1.15. Technically, the pair remains in a bearish structure, with resistance at 1.1542 acting as a potential sell zone. A rejection from this level could trigger renewed downside toward 1.1449 and possibly 1.1427 if risk sentiment weakens.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3138/1.3163
- Support: 1.2975/1.2941
Sterling held steady ahead of the Bank of England’s decision, but upside momentum remains limited by a strong dollar. Technically, the pair stays capped below the descending trendline near 1.3138, where selling pressure could re-emerge. A failure to break higher may trigger renewed downside toward 1.2975 as bearish structure persists.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 154.78/155.22
- Support: 153.27/152.70
Improved risk sentiment weighed on the yen as U.S. equities rebounded, keeping USD/JPY supported near 153.90. Technically, the pair maintains a bullish bias above the rising trendline from 153.27, with room to extend toward 154.78 if momentum holds. A break below 153.27, however, could signal a short-term pullback.
US Crude Oil Futures (DEC)
- Resistance: 61.03/61.82
- Support: 58.49/57.71
WTI slid to around $ 59.60, its lowest level in two weeks, as surging U.S. inventories and concerns about oversupply weighed on sentiment. The $58.49 zone remains a pivotal support that has triggered multiple rebounds in the past. A bullish reaction here could lift prices back toward $61.03–$61.82, aligning with previous swing resistance. However, sustained weakness below this level may confirm a breakdown.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4019/4051
- Support: 3947/3915
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 48.40/48.85
- Support: 47.02/46.44
Gold hovered near $3,970 after a strong 1.3% rebound, supported by risk aversion and policy uncertainty. Technically, the metal consolidates between the $3,947 support level and the $4,019 resistance level, with the price trapped in a symmetrical triangle. A breakout above $4,019 could extend gains toward $4,060–$4,100, while rejection below the descending trendline may send prices back toward $3,947 or lower trend support near $3,915.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 47741/48042
- Support: 47052/46747
The Dow futures rebounded 0.48% after a sharp sell-off, supported by strong earnings and positive data. Technically, the index is holding above the 47,052 support level, with momentum suggesting a potential rebound toward the 47,741 resistance level. A break above this level may open the door for further upside, while a failure to sustain could trigger consolidation back toward 47,000.
NAS100
- Resistance: 25950/26179
- Support: 25425/25193
NAS100 rose 0.65% as AI and growth stocks rebounded, though valuation concerns persist. Technically, the index is consolidating above the 25,425 support level, maintaining an ascending trendline that underpins its short-term bullish tone. A sustained move above 25,800 could open the path to 25,950–26,0179, while a break below 25,425 would weaken momentum and hint at a deeper pullback.
BTC
- Resistance: 105437/106931
- Support: 100489/98556
Bitcoin slid to around $103,000 after briefly dipping below $100,000, entering a technical bear market amid broad risk-off sentiment and valuation jitters. The pair remains capped under $105,437 resistance and the breakout trendline, signaling persistent bearish control. A failure to reclaim the $106,931 zone could reinforce selling pressure toward $100,489 or even the $98,556 region.
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