差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美國4月Markit PMI今晚出爐,高通脹是否會拖累市場需求?

今晚,市場主要關注美國4月Markit PMI初值數據的公佈。 從三月份的數據看,美國經濟增長迅速,隨著防疫限制逐漸放寬,商品和服務的需求正在快速上升,生產、新訂單量、就業人數均顯著增長,PMI各項數據從1月的暴跌走向反彈。

步入4月,美國經濟仍然在經歷著能源、大宗商品、食物等價格的進一步攀升,通脹壓力也是前所未有,市場人士普遍對企業成本上升表示擔憂。 美國4月Markit製造業PMI初值和美國4月Markit服務業PMI初值是否會受到通脹水準的拖累而不及預期,今晚將有答案。

 

美國市場工作力仍然吃緊

採購經理人指數是整體經濟的重要指標之一,因採購經理人可提前知道公司表現,一般來說50是該指數表現的分水嶺,當指數超過50代表行業景氣擴張,而50 以下則代表行業衰退步入低迷。 對於美國4月Markit製造業PMI初值,目前的市場預期值為58.2,雖然估計值較前值58.8稍低,但是仍然反映商品需求強勁和生產強勁增長,同時商品價格水準在上升。

服務業方面,市場對美國4月Markit服務業PMI初值的預測值為58,與前值持平,而3月數據低於預期。 3月Markit綜合PMI終值57.7,也低於預期,均反映出成產成本對生產帶來的壓力。

勞動力就業方面,美國勞工部4月1日數據顯示,今年3月份美國失業率環比降至3.6%,非農業部門新增就業人數為43.1萬,略低於市場預期,反映出市場工作力仍然吃緊,或將會拖慢增長速度,尤其是在工作力缺口最大的服務業。

3月份員工平均時薪繼續上漲,並且在過去12個月中,員工平均時薪增幅已達5.6%,略高於市場預期,因此通脹形勢仍然非常嚴峻,預計成本的上升會在本月數據中繼續體現。

bureau of labor

(來源:TRADINGECONOMICS)

 

Markit服務業PMI指數有下行壓力

在過去的3月份,美國製造業與服務業強勁需求推動整體積累訂單指數達到 2009 年以來的最高水平,雖然3月的數據顯示供應鏈中斷問題得到一定緩解,經濟正以較為健康的速度增長,但是目前產能仍然有限,商品供不應求、抬升價格的情況暫時仍無法改變。

us labor market

在3月一項衡量投入價格的指標加速升至76.8,接近歷史新高,進一步加劇通脹壓力,加上勞動力工資上升,企業所承擔的生產成本進一步加劇,影響著企業和消費者對經濟前景的信心

由於美國3月經歷了通脹爆表,未季調CPI同比上漲8.5%,美聯儲加息週期開啟,市場普遍預計美聯儲接下來可能會採取更加激進的加息策略以應對飆升的通脹。 若加息的陸續到來,也會令接下來數月的Markit PMI指數下行的壓力有所增加,供應鏈產能不足或需要修復的時間較長也會對新訂單的生產和交付造成較大壓力,同時由於受制於工作力的缺口,服務業修復也較為緩慢。

市場此前亦擔心俄烏戰爭對美國經濟增長及復甦造成拖累,從3月數據上看強勁的商品和服務需求加上疫情限制的放寬抵消了這部分影響,不過由於戰爭進一步推升能源、原材料、食品價格並且對供應鏈持續產生衝擊,還需密切留意事態發展。

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