差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美國消費者信心繼續惡化,今晚還將刷新新低嗎?

通貨膨脹持續飆升影響,美國消費者的信心持續低迷,這也讓市場對於今晚即將公佈的美國3月諮商會消費者信心指數充滿擔憂,美國2月份消費者信心指數較1月份的數據一度大幅下跌逾10點至110.5。而近日公佈的美國密歇根大學3月消費者信心指數終值為59.4,市場原先預料維持初值的59.7,該項數字也遠低於2月終值的62.8,已為連續第三個月下降。

不過,一些經濟學家認為,相對於基本面,密歇根大學情緒指數的持續低迷是過度的,他們預計經濟將繼續增長。目前美國申請失業救濟金的人數處於52年來的低點,且工資正在強勁增長。因此,今晚的數據受到投資者的重點關注,尤其是消費者的信心會不會再創下新的低點。

 

通脹是消費者信心低迷的主因

通脹是影響消費者信心的關鍵因素,可以看到的是美國的通脹水平還在飆升,似乎仍然沒有見頂,無論是能源、食品、住房成本全部上漲,值得一提的是原本市場預計美國的樓市會出現小幅上漲,但是美國2月份待售房屋銷量較1月份下降了4.1%至104.9,是2020年5月以來的最低水平,這也從側面反映出消費者的情緒低迷。

2月10日,美國勞工部發布的數據顯示,未經季調的美國2022年1月CPI同比上漲7.5%,創40年以來的新高,已為美國消費者價格指數(CPI)連續第二個月突破7%。其中汽油指數在2月份環比上升6.6%,幾乎貢獻了全部漲幅的三分之一;食品指數上升1.4%,是自2020年4月以來最大的環比增長。

其實,早在俄烏戰爭爆發之前,美國的能源價格已經是歷史新高,而戰爭的爆發加劇了美國的通脹水平,繼續推升了原本就高企的能源價格。而且,原本分析師們預計美國通脹將會在2月達到頂峰,現在看來不得不推後這一時間,通脹水平或還將繼續攀升。調查顯示,美國消費者對未來1年的通脹預期終值為5.4%。

隨著通脹率的持續高企,市場預期美聯儲加息的次數將更多,高盛此前上調了美國通脹預期,預計到2022年底,美聯儲核心個人消費支出價格指數將達到3.7%,高於此前預測值3.1% ,並且其預計今明兩年美聯儲或加息高達11次。高盛報告稱,若烏克蘭局勢急劇變化引發能源價格上漲或供應鏈中斷,未來美國通脹預期有可能再次被調高。

 

消費支出會受影響嗎?

由於通脹上行的壓力持續,對消費者信心的打擊還將持續,那麼消費者信心的低迷可能會影響其消費支出嗎?從目前的情況看,美國居民支出偏慢、儲蓄率高企,在疫情期間累積了超過2.5萬億美元的超額儲蓄,與此同時,勞動力市場正在強勁復甦,美國3月公佈的初領失業金人數創下逾半世紀以來新低,這對於緩解通貨膨脹的影響是利好因素。

雖然通脹加劇擠壓了消費者的購買力,但美國國內商品需求總體保持強勁,經濟增長的動能依然存在,低迷的市場情緒對於消費者支出的影響暫時不會很大,正如美國零售龍頭沃爾瑪截至1月底的第4財季業績顯示的那樣,仍然優於市場預期。

從密歇根大學情緒指數看,將於今晚公佈的美國3月諮商會消費者信心數據可能會繼續較為負面,尤其是在俄烏戰爭的影響持續對油價造成上升壓力的背景之下。市場需要密切留意該指數對美股可能造成的負面影響,如果較預期值107更低,或會進一步打擊投資者的信心。

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