差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美聯儲激進加息或板上釘釘,暴跌之後美股走向何方?

近期,美股走勢震盪,在美國公佈了8月CPI數據,而8月CPI和核心CPI雙雙高於預期,這讓美聯儲掉期交易已經完全定價美聯儲9月加息75個基點。消息公佈之後,美國三大股指全線收黑,道瓊斯指數一度急挫3.9%,納斯達克指數收跌約5.2%,標準普爾500指數收跌4.3%。 

相信目前美股市場已經正在消化9月可能加息75個基點的幅度,不過令市場不安的是開始出現可能加息100個基點的聲音,如果美聯儲最後選擇以暴力加息的方式加速通脹轉向,那麼美股未來可能還會再度下挫。同時,宏觀經濟的消息也決定著美股走勢,本週8月份PPI數據按年升8.7%,低於預期的8.8%,反映能源價格有所回落令通脹稍有降溫,該數據公佈之後美股重新回穩。 

sp500 chart另一方面,需要警惕美股較高的估值很可能在未來被調整,例如目前標普500的市盈率在17倍左右,這是一個不低的估值,如果未來經濟出現衰退,企業的盈利預期將被調低,很可能對股市造成較大的衝擊。因此,接下來經濟數據是美股投資者需要留意的重中之重,至於9月的利率決議相信對股市已經開始消化會激進加息的結果,除非加息超過75個基點,相信不會過大衝擊股市表現。 

板塊方面,能源板塊在今年以來累積了過多升幅,但是隨著接下來冬季用油旺季的來臨,燃料短缺、電價繼續上漲的風險令大型能源股仍可能有上升的機會,雖然目前的油價較早前已經大幅回落,但是不少大型能源股選擇通過分紅和回購的方式為投資者釋放出更多的利好,加上市盈率低於市場整體的市盈率,仍然有上行的潛力。 

金融股也是市場接下來關注的焦點,由於升息會令到金融股淨利差進一步擴大,這有利於金融股穩定獲利,一般來說金融股會成為升息的受惠者。不過,投資者也需要密切留意加息對金融業帶來的負面影響,尤其是投行IPO業務。近段時間高盛爆出即將裁員近百人的消息,由於加息令企業融資成本不斷增加,IPO數量大減,導致其投資銀行部門的營收大幅下滑,可能在未來繼續拖累相關公司的整體利潤表現。 

9月初以來,道指和標普500均呈現上升態勢,市場此前憧憬通脹數據會明顯轉向,但是結果不如人意。而後市的股市走向,市場仍存在較大分歧,有市場人士認為若未來能源價格持續下行,通脹的壓力將會逐漸減少,有利於美股的表現。 

但是,從觀察來看,下行因素仍然不容忽視,尤其是對美國經濟衰退的擔憂可能隨著激進的加息步伐不斷上升,對股市前景帶來挑戰。同時,股票市場需要警惕冬季能源使用高峰期,CPI數據維持高位的局面,如果CPI數據遲遲沒有明顯的轉向,或者說繼續不如市場預期一樣回落,尤其是在當前核心CPI不降反升的情況下,美聯儲的政策可能還會在更長的時間段維持,這對股票市場來說將不是一個利好的消息。

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