差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

加央行決議重磅來襲!何時啟動加息將決定加元走向

週三晚23:00加拿大央行將公佈利率決議,市場預期此次會議加息25個基點的概率為70%-75%。不過,彭博經濟研究預計,加拿大央行將維持利率不變。分析師認為首次加息的理由很強,並有可能發出即將採取行動的明確信號。因此,市場最為關注的是,加拿大的加息週期是否會在此次會議中啟動?

加拿大央行近期多次“放鷹”

 

雖然市場對加拿大央行的“鷹派”立場已經有所準備,但是其鷹調之深還是讓市場感到意外。在疫情時期,加拿大央行已經通過量化寬鬆計劃向金融體系注入數千億加元,並且增持了約3500億加元的債券。

 

但是在去年10月量化寬鬆政策被突然剎停,加拿大央行出人意料地直接宣布提前結束QE,這也使得加拿大就此成為了首個結束QE的G7經濟體。

 

以加拿大央行行長麥克勒姆為首的決策者宣布,他們將停止增持加拿大國債,從而結束其量化寬鬆計劃。加拿大央行隨後表示,在結束QE後會進入再投資階段,在此期間央行將僅購買同量的加拿大政府債券以取代到期的債券,從而保持整體持有量不變。

 

不過,加央行卻沒能成為G7中首個加息的國家,只是將加息預期提前到了今年二季度,最早今年二季度上調利率。蒙特利爾銀行將首次加息預期時間從4月提前至3月,而加拿大豐業銀行也表示,加拿大央行可能不容再等更久。

加息為何已經刻不容緩?

由於巨額的政府支出、供應鏈中斷和消費品需求激增,全球通脹率目前正在飆升,導致物價迅速上漲。從加國最近公佈的通脹數據就能發現,緊縮政策為何在加拿大已經變得刻不容緩。

 

加拿大統計局最新數據顯示,加拿大2021年12月未經季調的消費者物價指數(CPI)按年升幅略加快至4.8%,為1991年9月以來最高,已連升19個月。該國的通脹率已連續9個月高於加拿大央行設定的2%左右的通脹控制目標,加劇了加央行通過加息抑制通脹的壓力。

 

在通脹高企的背景下,加拿大的交通、住房和食品成本的通通上漲。加拿大12月食品和生活用品價格同比上漲5.7%,是2011年11月以來的最大升幅;商品價格上漲4.7%,服務價格升幅為2.3%;汽油價格增長31.2%,創1981年以來新高。

 

而就業率方面,加拿大統計局數據顯示,2021年12 月加拿大的失業率為5.9%,比11 月份的6% 略有降低;12 月的總失業人數為 121 萬人,跟 11 月幾乎相同,但高於 2020 年 2 月疫情開始前的 115 萬人。這意味著該國就業市場正恢復至疫情前水平,為啟動加息創造了條件。

加息會對加元產生什麼影響?

目前而言,加拿大經濟在就業和通脹兩個方面實際都已符合加息條件,因此市場一直預期加拿大央行會早於美聯儲加息。如果此次會議決定加國開啟加息週期,將支持加元反彈。此外,加元是和油價成正相關的貨幣,由於供應短缺問題持續,今年國際油價多方看漲,油價持續走強,在過去一個月里布倫特原油價格大幅上漲34%,幾乎達到7年來高位,這也對加元的反彈起到了助推作用。

 

不過,也有市場分析認為,加元在今年第一季度仍面臨一定壓力,由於奧密克戎疫情在全球肆掠,加元早前一度下跌至近1 年以來低點。當下,疫情還在各國蔓延,美聯儲或在第一季度啟動加息,美元上漲會間接對加元產生下行壓力。而長遠來說,受油價和加央行“鷹派”政策影響,加元有望扭轉自去年12月下旬以來的下行,但是更長期來看,美聯儲收緊政策的前景更加佔優,如果更快加息和縮表,美元上漲前景會對加元有所限制

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