AUDUSD is currently in a range, with prices holding solidly above the support at $0.6881. The bulls are presently defending this region and pushing higher while hoping for a favourable reading from the Australian Consumer Price index (CPI, q/q) to be released on Wednesday.
The price currently ranges at $0.6904 during the Asian session today and is hoping for further gains. The bulls fear the impact of the dollar index on every other currency pair in the market this week. The Fed will be expected to hike the interest rate by at least 75 basis points during the Fed’s session. This important FOMC session will be held on Wednesday night, precisely after the CPI report has been released during the day.
The Australian CPI q/q is an important economic data that measures the change in the prices of goods and services offered to investors within the just concluded second quarter. This report is usually considered the best measure of inflation within the concluded session. Inflation no doubt bears a significant influence on the strength of every currency, as a high rate of inflation weakens the power of money over time. The forecast for this data is 1.9%, while the previous reading was 2.1%. A higher reading from this data will weaken the Australian dollar and lead to more downside.
Higher inflation reports will lead the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider hiking its interest rate to reduce inflation and meet the current global expectations.
High energy, food, and housing costs have caused fear that the country might witness its highest inflation rate in this second quarter. The rate rises above the usual expectations to a new record at 6%. This forecast seems closer to the earlier predictions made by the RBA earlier in May, forecasting the CPI q/q to hit 5.5% in June. The RBA further anticipated inflation to peak at 6.2% as the overall annual rate. This will mark the highest rate for three decades.
Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) Banking Group are convinced that a 50-basis point interest rate hike from September to November will be appropriate. This is to increase the interest rate to 3.35% to reduce inflation. This is the best way to keep the Australian dollar at par with the US dollar. The interest rate is expected to be hiked aggressively by Wednesday night during the FOMC session.
Ahead of the CPI q/q to be released this week, we expect the AUDUSD to continue ranging within the current support zone, with the significant resistance at $0.6976. If this point remains undefeated, we can expect more downside within the week for this pair, with the next target at $0.68598. Should the Fed hike the interest rate for the dollar this Wednesday by at least 75 basis points, we can expect more downside for AUDUSD with the following significant support at $0.6728.
This week, significant volatility is expected for the AUDUSD, especially on Wednesday night after the FOMC session. Traders are advised to employ a proper risk management strategy this week while choosing any position for this pair.
The overall sentiment for AUDUSD this week is bearish. Investors can take advantage of the leverage provided by ATFX brokers to make profits while trading these fundamentals to influence the AUDUSD this week.
