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US Jobs Cool, Yields Slide: Gold Holds Firm Above $4,100

Key Takeaways:

  • September payrolls came in at just 29K, well below expectations, as unemployment rose to 4.2% and the labor market cooled.
  • U.S. stocks extended a mild rebound, led by the Nasdaq, while WTI retreated from its highs to below $90.
  • Gold, supported by a weaker Dollar and safe-haven buying, held above $4,145 but remained capped by high yields.
  • The Hang Seng stayed weak below 24,000 amid high yields, tight liquidity, the mainland China holiday, and southbound flows.

Today’s Focus: Final Services and Composite PMIs across major economies, especially the U.S. September Services PMI, will gauge U.S. growth and indirectly the Fed’s rate path. Thursday’s Fed minutes are this week’s focus.

 

Global Market Review 05/10/2026

  • Treasury yields retreated after the data, with the 10-year fall to 5.28% and the Dollar Index to around 101.9.
  • The three major U.S. indices extended their mild rebound, led by the Nasdaq (+1.9%).
  • WTI fell below $90 in early Monday trade, while gold rebounded to $4,160 after the data and held above $4,145.

 

Important Economic Calendar

Key Events on October 5 (GMT+8)

  • China Holiday
Time (GMT+8)EventImportance
06:00AU Services & Composite PMI Final SEP**
08:30JP Services & Composite PMI Final SEP**
15:55DE Services & Composite PMI Final SEP**
16:00EU Services & Composite PMI Final SEP**
16:30UK Services & Composite PMI Final SEP**
16:30EU Sentix Investor Confidence OCT**
17:00EU PPI AUG**
21:45US Services & Composite PMI Final SEP**
22:00US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI SEP***

Key Events on October 6 (GMT+8)

  • China Holiday
Time (GMT+8)EventImportance
TBD JP Bank of Japan Governor Speech***
17:00EU Retail Sales AUG**
20:30US Trade Balance AUG**

 

Markets Analysis 05/10/2026

EURUSD chart on 5 October 2026 shows a cautiously bullish rebound targeting 1.1313/1.1355 resistance and 1.1217 support.

  • Resistance: 1.1313/1.1355
  • Support: 1.1217/1.1176

Analyst’s View: EUR/USD is staging a modest recovery amid a softer Dollar and lower yields but remains cautiously bearish; a break above 1.1355 would extend the rebound, while a drop below 1.1176 would open more downside.

Bias: Low-Level Oscillation, Cautiously Bullish; Watch Eurozone and U.S. PMIs

 

GBPUSD hourly chart for 5 October 2026 highlights cautiously bullish bias near 1.3179 support and 1.3274/1.3334 resistance.

  • Resistance: 1.3274/1.3334
  • Support: 1.3179/1.3118

Analyst’s View: GBP/USD is attracting short-term inflows as the Dollar retreats, but it remains capped by slowing UK growth and BoE policy uncertainty. A break above the 1.3274/1.3334 zone would confirm a recovery, while a drop below 1.3118 would expose the downside.

Bias: Hovering near lows, cautiously bullish; watch for a break above resistance

 

USDJPY 1-hour chart on 5 October 2026 indicating a mild decline bias testing 157.42/157.18 support below 157.97 resistance.

  • Resistance: 157.97/158.22
  • Support: 157.42/157.18

Analyst’s View: USD/JPY leans toward testing support. A hold above 157.18 could allow a rebound, while a break below it opens further downside, with Treasury yields and BoJ signals in focus.

Bias: Mild Decline; watch whether key support holds

 

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT) chart on 5 October 2026 reflects bullish oscillation between 88.69 support and 91.78 resistance.

  • Resistance: 91.78/92.74
  • Support: 88.69/87.75

Analyst’s View: WTI is firmly oscillating amid Middle East tensions and supply concerns, with direction hinging on geopolitics and U.S. inventory data; a break above $91.78 could extend gains, while a drop below $88.69 risks a return to its downward channel.

Bias: Oscillating with Bullish Bias; watch for a break of resistance

 

Spot Gold (XAU/USD) chart for 5 October 2026 displays a cautiously bullish bias within 4135 support and 4189/4214 resistance.

  • Resistance: 4189/4214
  • Support: 4135/4111

 

Spot Silver (XAG/USD) hourly chart on 5 October 2026 signals a cautiously bullish trend between 60.96 and 62.39/63.03 levels.

  • Resistance: 62.39/63.03
  • Support: 60.96/60.31

Analyst’s View: Gold rebounded to around $4,160 after the weak payrolls but remains capped by high yields, with a neutral RSI and repairing but limited MACD momentum. A break above 4189/4214 would target $4,228, while a drop below $4,135 risks $4,111. Silver, rebounding above $61, tracks it within a 60.96–62.39 range.

Bias: Cautiously Bullish

 

Dow Jones Futures chart on 5 October 2026 shows a mild rebound bias testing 51440/51648 resistance above 50972 support.

  • Resistance: 51440/51648
  • Support: 50972/50759

Analyst’s View: The Dow is rebounding amid weak jobs data; a break above 51440/51648 would extend gains, while a breakdown below support risks a fall toward 50332, with yields and macro data adding volatility.

Bias: Mild Rebound; watch for a break of resistance

 

NASDAQ 100 chart on 5 October 2026 highlights a short-term rebound bias aiming for 31023/31115 above 30786/30714 support.

  • Resistance: 31023/31115
  • Support: 30786/30714

Analyst’s View: The Nasdaq is lifted by weak payrolls and lower yields and could strengthen further on a break above 30,805. A breach of 30786/30714 risks a pullback to 30356, with this evening’s U.S. Services PMI the next guide.

Bias: Short-Term Rebound; watch prior-high resistance

 

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) chart for 5 October 2026 exhibits short-term bullish momentum towards 87369/87926 above 86102 support.

  • Resistance: 87369/87926
  • Support: 86102/85536

Analyst’s View: BTC shows strength with institutional and ETF inflows after US bond yields slid, testing resistance at 87,369–87,926. However, overhead resistance remains heavy. Failure to hold $84,800 support could trigger a deeper correction, with support at $82,570.

Bias: Short-term bullish, medium-term cautious.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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