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Eyes on US-Iran Talks as Market Weighs Possible Resignation of UK PM

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

US and Iran began peace talks in Switzerland after President Trump warned of renewed hostilities due to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz amid Israel-Lebanon tensions.

This week focuses on inflation and growth concerns, with the US PCE Price Index and global PMI figures impacting policy expectations. Highlights include Eurozone Consumer Confidence (expected to improve but still negative) and Canada CPI (forecast at 3.0%, up from 2.8%).

 

Global Market Review 22/06/2026

US markets were closed on Friday. The US Dollar rose 1%, reaching a 13-month high. Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,160, while WTI crude rebounded slightly amid US-Iran developments.

 

Key Events Today:

June 22 (GMT+8)

  • 09:15 CN Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y JUN **
  • 20:30 CA CPI MoM MAY **
  • 22:00 EU Consumer Confidence Flash JUN **

June 23 (GMT+8)

NYMEX Crude Oil July Futures Expire

  • 07:00 AU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN **
  • 08:30 JP Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN **
  • 15:30 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN **
  • 16:00 EU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN **
  • 16:30 GB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN **
  • 21:45 US Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUN ***
  • 22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index JUN **

 

Markets Analysis 22/06/2026

20260622 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1500 / 1.1518
  • Support: 1.1452 / 1.1438

During Monday’s early Asian session, EUR/USD fell to 1.1460 as market anxieties grew over US-Iran peace talks, despite comments from ECB officials suggesting further rate hikes.

Analyst View: EUR/USD is near late-March lows, with resistance above 1.1500. Ongoing US-Iran tensions and ECB rate-hike talk weigh on it. Key support to watch is at 1.1452 / 1.1438.

Bias: Under pressure

20260622 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3288 / 1.3306
  • Support: 1.3191 / 1.3173

Cable (GBPUSD) declined this morning, reversing Friday’s gains from stronger UK retail sales data. A Bloomberg report suggests Prime Minister Keir Starmer may announce his resignation timeline soon, potentially as early as today.

Analyst View: GBP/USD opened lower but bounced above 1.3200, near late March lows. Focus is on a potential Starmer statement, and political uncertainty, along with global tensions, may limit gains for the cable.

Bias: Under pressure

20260622 USDJPY Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 161.77 / 161.89
  • Support: 161.24 / 161.12

USD/JPY saw renewed support in Monday’s Asian session as it aimed for the 161.50 level, following a minor pullback. Safe-haven demand for the dollar increased amid rising uncertainty over the US-Iran situation.

Analyst View: USD/JPY hovers near recent highs as safe-haven demand persists. Upside is capped by possible intervention by Japanese authorities.

Bias: Consolidating at highs

20260622 US Crude Oil Futures (AUG) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 78.25 / 79.39
  • Support: 74.40 / 73.49

Crude oil prices jumped this morning after Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz due to renewed hostilities with Israel in Lebanon. This closure and unstable peace negotiations led to a nearly 2% increase in crude prices.

Analyst View: Crude oil trimmed gains after an early spike. The rebound lacks momentum, and volatility is expected, with a focus on support at $74.40/$73.49.

Bias: Biased to the downside

20260622 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4298/4342
  • Support: 4161/4118

20260622 Spot Silver Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 69.05/69.92
  • Support: 64.37/63.26

Spot gold rebounded this morning after its third consecutive weekly decline, while spot silver sought to end its three-day losing streak. However, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and uncertainty in US-Iran negotiations continue to pressure precious metals.

Analyst View: Gold rebounded, testing the 110-day moving average at $4,220. If it fails, selling pressure could push it back toward $4,100, with immediate support at $ 4,161 and $4,118.

Bias: Mild rebound

20260622 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 52076 / 52338
  • Support: 51202 / 50995

After last Friday’s US holiday, market participants are focusing on the US-Iran situation. President Trump’s warnings may dampen risk appetite, adding to challenges for US equities amid rising expectations of more Fed rate hikes.

Analyst View: The Dow fluctuated between gains and losses before closing mostly unchanged, holding within a relatively elevated range despite failing to reclaim the 52,000 mark.

Bias: Consolidating at highs

20260622 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 30756 / 31053
  • Support: 29777 / 29475

The Nasdaq is set for a volatile session due to US-Iran talks. Any deterioration in negotiations could pull the index down, especially after last week’s gains following the brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have faded due to this weekend’s escalation.

Analyst View: Nasdaq’s recovery faces resistance from a declining trendline, while moving averages provide support. Expect headline-driven volatility.

Bias: Neutral (Wait-and-see)

20260622 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 65330/66308
  • Support: 61253/60307

Bitcoin rose above $64,000 on Sunday, recovering from last week’s dip as investors watched U.S.-Iran negotiations and bullish trends in crypto derivatives.

Analyst View: BTC/USD tested its 10-day and 20-day moving averages this morning. A breakout above these levels could lead to a move past $65,000 and return to last week’s highs.

Bias: Mild rebound

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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