Client Portal
Start trading

Fed Hints at Rate Hikes; Will BoE Follow Suit?

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate steady, but indications suggest a possible rate hike later this year due to rising inflation. Market futures are pricing in a September increase.

Today’s focus is on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, guidance on a potential August rate hike could support the British pound (GBP). Conversely, a downbeat statement may lead to a decline in the pound. Additionally, US initial jobless claims are expected to decrease slightly to 225k, down from 229k.

 

Global Market Review 18/06/2026

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but adopted a hawkish tone, signaling potential rate hikes through the end of 2026 to address persistent inflation. As a result, the Dow fell 0.97%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.2%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.3%.

The hawkish outlook pushed US Treasury yields higher and lifted the US Dollar Index (DXY) above 100. Gold prices fell 1.7%, and spot silver dropped below $68. WTI crude oil also reversed gains, closing at its lowest since March 4.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 14:00 GB Unemployment Rate APR **
  • 15:30 SNB Interest Rate Decision ***
  • 19:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision & Meeting Minutes ***
  • 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
  • 22:00 US CB Leading Index MAY **

June 19th (GMT+8)

U.S. & China, Hong Kong Holiday

  • 07:30 JP CPI MAY **
  • 14:00 EU GERMANY PPI MAY **
  • 14:00 GB Retail Sales MAY **

 

Markets Analysis 18/06/2026

  • Resistance: 1.1546 / 1.1561
  • Support: 1.1471 / 1.1452

The Fed’s hawkish stance triggered a rebound in the dollar yesterday, pushing EUR/USD to its lowest level since late March. During Thursday’s early Asian session, the pair clawed back some losses, trading around 1.1510.

Analyst View: EUR/USD recorded its sharpest drop since January, briefly breaching 1.1500 before recovering some ground. The pair is now trying to hold above last week’s low but faces resistance near the 10-day MA at 1.1550.

Bias: Short-term bearish

  • Resistance: 1.3347 / 1.3365
  • Support: 1.3246 / 1.3228

Yesterday, GBP/USD dropped below 1.3300 amid weaker UK CPI data and a hawkish Fed stance, dampening hopes of a Bank of England rate hike and shifting focus to the BoE’s upcoming policy decision.

Analyst View: GBP/USD faced its biggest single-day loss this year but is attempting to regain 1.3300 as investors await the BoE decision. A hawkish statement could boost the pound, with resistance at the 10-day MA around 1.3370.

Bias: Wait-and-see near 1.3300

  • Resistance: 161.00 / 161.12
  • Support: 160.31 / 160.19

Fueled by the Fed’s hawkish stance, USD/JPY rallied to 160.80 yesterday, surpassing its late-April high. However, concerns over potential FX intervention by Japanese authorities may limit further gains.

Analyst View: USD/JPY is showing bullish momentum as it seeks to break out of its recent trading range, but intervention concerns may rise, with initial resistance at 161.00.

Bias: Range-bound at highs

  • Resistance: 78.25/79.39
  • Support: 73.49/72.58

Crude oil prices fell further, with WTI crude dropping 2% yesterday. Despite a brief rebound, investors are assessing the potential impact of an upcoming US-Iran peace agreement, while uncertainty remains over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Watch for the official signing of the interim peace agreement between the US and Iran tomorrow.

Analyst View: Oil reached $75 after edging higher and then retracing, with bears in control and further downside possible. Watch support at $73.49/$72.58 and the $70 target.

Bias: Under pressure at lows

  • Resistance: 4364/4403
  • Support: 4234/4194

  • Resistance: 70.84/71.97
  • Support: 67.93/67.05

Precious metals saw selling pressure after the Federal Reserve suggested interest rate hikes. Gold prices, which closed down over 1% yesterday, rebounded above $4,300 in early Thursday trading.

Analyst View: Gold rebounded above the 10-day MA, shifting focus to resistance at the 20-day MA ($4,380). Stay alert for news of a US-Iran agreement and possible pre-holiday adjustments.

Bias: Mild rebound

  • Resistance: 52074/52335
  • Support: 51204/50998

The Federal Reserve’s updated dot plot signaled a hawkish stance, leading to a sell-off in all three major US stock indices. The Dow reversed from record highs, closing 1% lower.

Analyst View: Dow futures ended its winning streak, losing the most in a week after briefly hitting 52,200. Watch for support near the 10-day MA at 51,100.

Bias: Short-term correction

  • Resistance: 30081/30377
  • Support: 29477/29175

The Fed’s dot plot indicated a significant rise in rate hike expectations. While the semiconductor index gained, most mega-cap tech stocks fell, with SpaceX posting its first decline, leading Nasdaq to drop more than 1%.

Analyst View: Nasdaq is at key daily moving averages after two down days. Direction depends on holding support at 29,477/29,175 or dropping to 29,000.

Bias: Short-term correction

  • Resistance: 66352/67304
  • Support: 63202/62234

Bitcoin fell on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish update weighed on speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Analyst View: BTC/USD closed lower for a second day, reaching the 10-day MA. Watch for consolidation between the 10- and 20-day MAs, with the 10-day MA as key support.

Bias: Consolidation

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

Recent News
Free Demo Account
✅ Practice risk-free
✅ Master the markets
Trade live when you’re ready!
Open Live Account
Open Demo Account
Popular posts
Learn More
With ATFX
Related Post
ATFX_logo

© ATFX.COM. All rights reserved.

Legal: AT Global Markets (UK) Limited is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom. FCA registration number (760555).Registered Office: Tower 42, Leaf 35C, 25 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1HQ, United Kingdom. Company No.09827091

Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please read the full risk disclosure on pages 42-45 of our Terms of Business.

The commercialisation of services and the acquisition of clients can only be carried out in Spain by an authorised entity or through a tied agent.

The information on this site is not directed at residents of the United States, Belgium or any particular country outside the UK and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a group of entities including:

AT Global Markets (UK) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom with registration number 760555. The Registered Office: Tower 42, Leaf 35C, 25 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1HQ, United Kingdom. (Professional clients only)

ATFX Global Markets (CY) Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) under the license no. 285/15. The Registered Office: 159 Leontiou A’ Street, Maryvonne Building Office 204, 3022, Limassol, Cyprus.

AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission with registration number 157819 and license number C118023331. The Registered Office: G08, Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius.

ATFX MENA Financial Services LLC is regulated by the Capital Market Authority (CMA) in the United Arab Emirates with Category 5 license number 20200000078.

EMERGING MARKETS is regulated by the Jordan Securities Commission authority as an Introducing Broker license number 643 and is the regulated entity in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

ATFX is a trademark of AT Global Markets INTL LTD a company registered in Mauritius under FSC and all services in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is offered through its Introducing Broker.

AT Global Markets LLC is a Limited Liability Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines with company number 333 LLC 2020. The Registered Office: Euro House, Richmond Hill Road, Kingstown, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

ATFX (Cambodia) Company Limited in Cambodia is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Regulator of Cambodia with the license number 040.

ATFX

ATFX UK (AT Global Markets (UK) Ltd.) focuses on developing institutional business and professional investors and does not accept retail clients under its UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) license.

For professional client applications, please contact [email protected].

ATFX

Important Notice

We would like to inform you that, in order to ensure full compliance with the regulations of the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM), the opening of new accounts for individuals residing or domiciled in the Federative Republic of Brazil is currently unavailable.

This measure is necessary to complete the final stages of the technological and operational integration process with our local intermediary partner, Levycam CCTVM Ltda. (CNPJ 50.579.044/0001-96), in accordance with the guidelines set forth in CVM Guidance Opinion No. 33/2005.

As a result, it is not possible to proceed with your account opening request at this time. Once the regulatory and operational integration process is completed, the account opening flow will be enabled, and interested parties will be duly informed.

ATFX is not authorized by the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) to offer intermediation or distribution services for securities issued abroad to investors residing in the Federative Republic of Brazil. Currently, ATFX does not operate nor actively offer intermediation services in Brazil. By accessing this website, investors declare that they are aware of the applicable legal restrictions and agree that they are operating outside the jurisdiction of the CVM. Investments abroad are not covered by the protection mechanisms existing in Brazil, such as the MRP and the FGC. With the objective of enabling future regularized operations, ATFX has entered into a contract for the provision of foreign intermediation services with the Brazilian brokerage firm Levycam CCTVM (CNPJ 50.579.044/0001-96), as provided for in CVM Guidance Opinion No. 33/2005. However, activities related to local intermediation are still in the pre-operational phase (technological and regulatory integration process). If you have any questions regarding the regulation of your trading accounts, please contact us.

I understand
ATFX

🌍 Welcome to ATFX!

To provide you with the best trading experience in Iraq, please visit our localized website:

There, you’ll find all products, services, and contact information tailored specifically for you. Thank you for choosing ATFX!

Go to ATFX (AR)
ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website https://www.atfx.com/en-ae/ are not suitable
in your country. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or
constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments.
Please visit https://www.atfx.com/en/ to proceed.

ATFX

使用限制

本网站的产品及服务不适合英国居民。网站内部的信息和素材不应被视为分销，要约，买入或卖出任何投资产品。请继续访问 https://www.atfx.com/en/ 。

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Please note, you may be accessing this page from outside Australia. Products and Services on https://www.atfx.com/en-au/ may not be suitable in your country. The information provided should not be considered as an offer, solicitation, or distribution for any investments.

Proceed to Stay
Choose Your Region at ATFX.com

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on https://www.atfx.com/en-au/ are not suitable in your country. The information provided should not be considered as an offer, solicitation, or distribution for any investments.

Choose another region to see content specific to your location.

Choose Your Region at ATFX.com
ATFX

Restrictions on Use

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

AT Global Markets (UK) Limited does not offer trading services to retail clients.
If you are a professional client, please visit https://www.atfxconnect.com/