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Middle East tensions spark market sell-off; all eyes on U.S. CPI tonight.

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S. strikes on Iran have heightened tensions in the Middle East and increased risk aversion, contributing to market weakness ahead of the U.S. CPI data. Tonight’s CPI release could hit 4.2%, the highest since September 2022, which could affect Fed policy expectations and increase volatility. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady, but its statement may impact the CAD amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

 

Global Market Review 10/06/2026

Global markets fell yesterday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down sharply amid a decline in semiconductor stocks, indicating weakness in the tech sector. The U.S. dollar weakened, easing pressure on other assets, while gold reached a two-month low and crude oil initially dropped before rebounding.

 

Key Events Today:

  • 09:30 CN CPI & PPI MAY **
  • 20:30 US CPI MAY ***
  • 21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision ***
  • 22:30 BoC Press Conference ***
  • 22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

June 11th

  • 20:00 OPEC Monthly Report **
  • 20:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision ***
  • 20:30 US PPI MAY ***
  • 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
  • 20:45 ECB Press Conference ***

 

Markets Analysis 10/06/2026

20260610 EURUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.1564 / 1.1576
  • Support: 1.1509 / 1.1496

EUR/USD edged higher on a weaker U.S. dollar, but gains were capped by Middle East tensions. Focus remains on the ECB rate decision and U.S. CPI.

Analyst View: EUR/USD tested above 1.1570 yesterday but failed to hold gains, trading below 1.1550 this morning. If U.S. CPI data strengthens the dollar, the pair may revisit this week’s lows near 1.1500.

Bias: Hovering at low levels

20260610 GBPUSD Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 1.3406 / 1.3430
  • Support: 1.3333 / 1.3302

GBP/USD gained for a second day as a weaker USD and strong UK retail sales supported Sterling, though resistance remains below 1.3400.

Analyst View: Despite two days of gains, GBP/USD’s rebound remains weak, trading below key moving averages. Intraday direction hinges on U.S. CPI data.

Bias: Short-term bearish

  • Resistance: 160.53 / 160.62
  • Support: 160.00 / 159.90

USD/JPY held above 160.00, with muted trading amid possible intervention, while U.S. strikes boosted dollar demand despite Japan’s PPI surprise.

Analyst View: The pair continues to trade moderately within its upper range. However, traders should note that tonight’s U.S. CPI release could break this narrow, range-bound pattern. As the price approaches 160.50, it is meeting resistance, suggesting caution at these elevated levels.

Bias: Cautious at highs

20260610 US Crude Oil Futures (JUL) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 91.67 / 92.93
  • Support: 86.35 / 85.11

Crude oil prices rebounded in the Asian session after facing earlier pressure due to U.S. strikes against Iran, triggered by the downing of an American helicopter. Prices had dropped to their lowest since April 21 after President Trump called for an end to hostilities between the two countries.

Analyst View: Crude oil recovered from $85.95 but remains in a holding pattern, awaiting updates from the Middle East and the U.S. CPI report. Price is expected to fluctuate between support and the 10-day average.

Bias: Range-bound

20260610 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 4312/4340
  • Support: 4171/4137

20260610 Spot Silver Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 70.84/73.58
  • Support: 61.58/59.40

Rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike and U.S. strikes against Iran led to a decline in gold prices. Investors are cautious ahead of tonight’s crucial U.S. CPI release, which could affect interest rate expectations and trigger volatility in gold.

Analyst View: Gold hit a multi-month low below $4,200 this morning. Traders are awaiting guidance from the U.S. CPI. If prices fall further, $4,100 is key support; a rebound may target resistance above $4,300.

Bias: Wait-and-see nearly $4,200

20260610 Dow Jones Futures Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 50993 / 51152
  • Support: 50518 / 50319

The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed yesterday. The Dow recorded modest gains, but growing caution ahead of key U.S. inflation data capped its upside, as investors awaited signals on future Federal Reserve policy.

Analyst View: The Dow was volatile, bouncing off its 20-day moving average to close near its 10-day average. The U.S. CPI release will guide the direction of rates and prices.

Bias: Neutral / Wait-and-see

20260610 NASDAQ 100 Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 29926 / 30247
  • Support: 28312 / 28048

Semiconductor stocks reversed lower, fueling broad weakness across the tech sector. Large-cap tech stocks posted widespread losses, with Apple down more than 3% and Tesla down 3%. The Nasdaq fell more than 4% intraday, reaching its lowest level since May 6.

Analyst View: Nasdaq recovered more than half of yesterday’s loss. The 29,000 level is key; U.S. CPI may determine whether it retests the lows or challenges resistance at 29,600.

Bias: Neutral / Wait-and-see

20260610 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Keys Instruments

  • Resistance: 64955/67606
  • Support: 58042/56000

Bitcoin fell as institutional investors continued to reduce spot Bitcoin ETF holdings, though at a slower pace than in previous weeks.

Analyst View: Bitcoin remained range-bound at recent lows but saw accelerating downward momentum. Traders should watch for a potential drop toward last week’s lows, with a possible retest of levels below $60,000.

Bias: Under pressure at low levels

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

 

About the author

Martin Lam

 

Martin Lam is ATFX Chief Analyst for Asia Pacific, with over 20 years of experience in global forex and investment markets. He holds a degree in Finance and Economics from Deakin University and has held senior roles at leading FX brokerage firms.

More from Martin Lam

This market commentary and analysis has been prepared for ATFX by a third party for general information purposes only. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell as it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should therefore seek independent advice before making any investment decisions. This information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. We aim to establish and maintain and operate effective organisational and administrative arrangements with a view to taking all reasonable steps to prevent conflicts of interest from constituting or giving rise to a material risk of damage to the interests of our clients. The market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however we make no representation or warranty of its accuracy or completeness, and accept no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted.

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