(By ATFX Analyst Team)
SummaryWeekend optimism faded after Iran denied new peace talks with the U.S., while Washington said it seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to breach its blockade. Iran vowed retaliation, and Trump warned that the ceasefire could end by Wednesday if no lasting deal is reached. Oil opened sharply higher on Monday.
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Global Market Review 20/04/2026
U.S. equity markets closed on a strong note on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording record closing highs for a third straight session, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its highest level since late February. On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 rose 4.53%, while the Nasdaq and Dow gained 6.84% and 3.2%, respectively. U.S. Treasury yields declined as optimism grew that the Iran situation could soon be resolved, and the U.S. dollar fell to multi-week lows, marking its second consecutive weekly decline.
Gold prices extended their gains, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and remarks from Iran’s foreign minister that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open during the ceasefire period. Spot gold rose 0.85% to $4,828.30 per ounce, bringing its weekly gain to 1.7%. Earlier, Iran had said the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to all commercial shipping for the remainder of the ceasefire period. Meanwhile, oil prices fell sharply last Friday, with WTI crude closing down 12% for the week, marking its second consecutive weekly decline.
Key Events Today:
- 09:15 CN Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y **
- 14:00 EU GERMANY PPI MoM MAR **
- 20:30 CA CPI MAR **
Tomorrow:
- 14:00 GB Unemployment Rate FEB **
- 17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index APR **
- 20:30 US Retail Sales MAR ***
- 22:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM MAR **
Markets Analysis 20/04/2026
- Resistance: 1.1835/1.1884
- Support: 1.1674/1.1624
EURUSD held firm after touching an eight-week high near 1.1848, as the dollar remained broadly soft despite a modest rebound. However, renewed Middle East tensions and safe-haven demand may keep further gains more modest.
Analyst View: EURUSD is still holding up well, but the pair remains capped below the 1.1835–1.1884 resistance band. As long as pullbacks stay contained above 1.1624–1.1674, the broader tone remains constructive, though the upside may remain less direct.
Bias: Turns weaker below 1.1800
- Resistance: 1.3555/1.3603
- Support: 1.3432/1.3395
GBPUSD held support after a second weekly rise, aided by broad dollar weakness. However, with geopolitical stress returning and risk sentiment less stable, sterling may find it harder to extend gains aggressively.
Analyst View: GBPUSD is pulling back after failing to hold above the 1.3555 resistance level, indicating near-term momentum has cooled. If the pair remains above 1.3395–1.3432, the broader recovery structure remains intact rather than reversing outright.
Bias: Turns weaker below 1.3500
- Resistance: 159.39/159.67
- Support: 158.53/158.17
USDJPY fell to 158.22 as softer Treasury yields and weaker dollar sentiment weighed on the pair. Still, downside may remain limited if renewed energy disruptions revive U.S. inflation worries and support defensive dollar demand.
Analyst View: USDJPY is stuck in a hesitant rebound rather than a clean recovery. The pair keeps probing higher, but unless it can reclaim 159.39–159.67, the move remains vulnerable to a fade back towards 158.17–158.53.
Bias: Faces resistance below 159.00
- Resistance: 93.21/94.90
- Support: 85.43/83.77
WTI rebounded towards $88 after last week’s sharp collapse, as the Strait of Hormuz was closed again following fresh accusations between Washington and Tehran. The market remains highly headline-driven, with renewed supply fears back in focus.
Analyst View: WTI is attempting to recover from a bruised position, but for now this still feels like a rebound from oversold territory rather than the start of a confident recovery. Unless price climbs back through 93.21–94.90, the market remains vulnerable to renewed pressure towards 83.77–85.43.
Bias: Hovering around the $90 area
- Resistance: 4886/4981
- Support: 4736/4643
- Resistance: 82.33/85.70
- Support: 75.48/72.05
Gold opened lower near $4,776 after last week’s surge, as traders reassessed whether renewed conflict would revive oil-driven inflationary pressures. The $4,750 level now appears a key short-term level as markets balance risk and rate expectations.
Analyst View: Gold is losing some of its immediate momentum after failing to build on the move above $4,800, so the market is slipping back into a more contested zone. Even so, unless price starts giving way below $4,643, this still looks more like a pullback within a supported structure than a full bearish turn.
Bias: Hovering around the $4,800 area
- Resistance: 49897/50459
- Support: 48618/48047
The Dow closed at its highest level since late February, supported by broad risk appetite and strong equity momentum. But, renewed Middle East tensions could undermine that resilience if higher oil prices once again cloud inflation and growth expectations.
Analyst View: The Dow is pressing into the upper part of its recent structure, but it is now heading straight into the 49,897–50,459 resistance area. That keeps the tone constructive, yet this is also where the rebound may encounter more hesitation unless buyers can push through decisively.
Bias: Facing resistance at elevated levels
- Resistance: 26887/27182
- Support: 26308/25933
NAS100 extended its record run as investors continued to favor growth and AI-linked names, despite resurfacing geopolitical risks. However, the rally may turn more cautious if renewed energy shocks begin to pressure yields and sentiment again.
Analyst View: The NAS100 is still climbing, but the index is now approaching the 26,887–27,182 resistance zone, where the rally may begin to lose some of its momentum. The trend still points higher, though this stage may look more like probing resistance than free expansion.
Bias: Facing resistance at elevated levels
- Resistance: 75240/76856
- Support: 73275/71687
Bitcoin slipped as renewed tensions in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered broader risk-off volatility across crypto markets. Even so, ETF inflows and institutional participation remain a stabilising force, helping limit downside despite fragile sentiment.
Analyst View: Bitcoin is no longer cleanly pushing higher. The retreat from the $75,240–$76,856 supply area suggests buyers remain, but conviction is thinning. As long as $71,687–$73,275 holds, this appears more like a reset than a breakdown.
Bias: Neutral to mildly bullish.
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