(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Summary·Geopolitical Tensions: Iran’s new Supreme Leader has vowed to continue the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA’s monthly report warns that a Middle East war could trigger the largest global oil supply disruption in history, heightening market anxieties. ·U.S. Labour Market: Initial jobless claims fell to 213,000, indicating that labour market conditions remain stable. This may provide the Federal Reserve with more policy manoeuvring room. ·Key Focus Today: On this final trading day of the week, the market remains fixated on developments in the Middle East. Regarding economic data, the focus is on the January Core PCE Price Index, a key measure for gauging underlying inflation and Fed policy direction. Following Wednesday’s CPI data (which met expectations), investors are watching to see if the PCE remains stable, as any significant deviation could influence rate expectations and market sentiment. The annual rate for January Core PCE is expected to hold at 3%. Note: As this is the final inflation report before next week’s Fed meeting, it is crucial; however, because it does not reflect the impact of the latest Iranian situation, its impact may be dampened unless the figures significantly exceed expectations. ·Other Data: The revised U.S. Q4 GDP (annualised quarterly rate) is expected to remain at 1.4%. |
Global Market Review
U.S. stocks retreated on Thursday, with the Dow falling 1.56%, the S&P 500 down 1.52%, U.S. stocks fell on Thursday—with the Dow down 1.56%, the S&P 500 down 1.52%, and the Nasdaq down 1.78%—as skyrocketing oil prices intensified inflation fears. The energy surge fueled concerns about Europe’s import-reliant economy, driving investors toward the U.S. Dollar (which reached its highest level since November 2025) and pushing Treasury yields sharply higher.
Consequently, gold dropped 1.87% to $5,078.89 per ounce as the stronger dollar and dampened rate-cut expectations outweighed geopolitical safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, international oil prices soared 9% to their highest levels since 2022, with Brent crude breaking $100 per barrel after Iran’s Supreme Leader vowed to continue the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Key Events Today:
- 15:00 GB GDP JAN **
- 15:00 GB Manufacturing & Industrial Production JAN **
- 16:00 EU Industrial Production JAN ** 20:30 US GDP & Core PCE Prices Q4 2nd Est ***
- 20:30 US Core PCE Price Index JAN ***
- 20:30 US Durable Goods Orders JAN **
- 20:30 CA Unemployment Rate FEB**
- 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel MAR ***
Key Data and Events Coming Week:
- Monday: CN Retail Sales & Industrial Production FEB; CA CPI FEB; US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index MAR; US Industrial & Manufacturing Production FEB
- Tuesday: AU RBA Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference; EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index MAR; US Pending Home Sales FEB
- Wednesday: US API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change; EU CPI Final FEB; US PPI FEB; CA BoC Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference; US Factory Orders JAN
- Thursday: Fed Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference; AU Unemployment Rate FEB; JP BoJ Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference; JP Industrial Production JAN; GB Unemployment Rate FEB; GB BoE Interest Rate Decision & Meeting Minutes; US Initial Jobless Claims; EU ECB Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference; US New Home Sales JAN
- Friday: CN Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y; EU Germany PPI FEB; EU Balance of Trade JAN; CA PPI FEB & Retail Sales JAN
Markets Analysis 13/03/2026
- Resistance: 1.1578/1.1653
- Support: 1.1459/1.1383
EUR fell 0.5% amid heightened USD haven demand from the Iran conflict. As a major energy importer, the Eurozone faces severe economic headwinds from surging oil prices, which outweigh the impact of any potential safe-haven inflows into the Euro.
Analyst View: The pair is trending lower within a bearish channel, testing 1.1520. Remaining below the 1.1578 resistance keeps 1.1459 in sight. A break below 1.1459 could expose the 1.1383 channel floor as geopolitical risks cap any recovery.
Bias: Bearish below 1.1550.
- Resistance: 1.3396/1.3429
- Support: 1.3287/1.3253
Sterling fell towards 1.3350 as Middle East escalation drove oil prices higher. While better-than-expected US Jobless Claims boosted the USD, surging energy costs led 86% of economists to predict a BoE rate hold at 3.75%.
Analyst View: GBPUSD is trapped in a descending channel, currently struggling below the 1.3396 resistance zone. Strong US labor data and energy-driven inflation favor a cautious BoE, keeping the bias lower. A break below 1.3287 targets the 1.3253 support.
Bias: Bearish below 1.3390.
- Resistance: 159.75/160.36
- Support: 158.94/158.29
JPY tumbled by more than 1.5% amid threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital to energy-dependent Japan. The Yen is buckling under massive import costs and widening yield differentials as the USD surges on haven demand.
Analyst View: The pair is trending higher within an ascending channel and is currently breaking above 158.94. With energy risks and yield differentials favouring the USD, a decisive hold above the support zone targets 159.75 and the 160.36 psychological barrier.
Bias: Neutral/Consolidation at highs.
- Resistance: 102.85/109.02
- Support: 89.28/83.22
WTI surged 9% to $95.70, a four-year high. Iran’s vow to block the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Iraqi tankers sparked fears of the most significant global oil supply disruption in history.
Analyst View: WTI has rebounded sharply from the 83.22 support zone and is currently consolidating above 89.28. Given the extreme supply risks in the Gulf, the path of least resistance is higher. A sustained move targets the 102.85 resistance zone.
Bias: Bullish above $90.
- Resistance: 5200/5284
- Support: 4994/4927
- Resistance: 87.15/88.60
- Support: 81.11/79.71
Gold fell 2% to $5,118.16 as a surging USD and fading hopes of a March rate cut pressured the metal. Rising Treasury yields outweighed safe-haven demand stemming from the escalating Iran conflict and central bank buying.
Analyst View: Gold is showing signs of consolidation within its ascending channel but remains capped by the $5,200 resistance zone. While geopolitical risks persist, a failure to reclaim 5,200 could lead to a deeper correction toward the 4,994 support level.
Bias: Weak Consolidation below $5,200.
- Resistance: 47225/47544
- Support: 46208/45894
The Dow plunged 1.56% amid renewed escalation of the war, stoking stagflation fears. Soaring energy costs and deteriorating credit quality at major banks fueled panic selling, erasing any remaining optimism for a soft landing or a rate pause.
Analyst View: The Dow is trending lower within an accelerated descending channel. Currently, the index is struggling to hold above the 47,225 resistance zone. Failure to reclaim this level suggests the bearish momentum will continue toward the 46,208 support zone.
Bias: Bearish below 47,000.
- Resistance: 25009/25282
- Support: 24196/23854
The NAS100 fell 1.78% as high-valuation tech stocks reacted to rising yields and energy-driven inflation. Investors rotated out of risk assets as the geopolitical situation worsened and the timeline for Fed easing was delayed.
Analyst View: The NAS100 is oscillating within a range, currently struggling to maintain its footing below the 25,009 resistance zone. Persistent bearish sentiment suggests a potential test of the 24,196 support area, especially as yields remain elevated.
Bias: Bearish below 24,600.
- Resistance: 72828/74086
- Support: 68831/67589
Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $70,639, showing resilience as traders balanced an in-line CPI report against the Iran conflict. Investors increasingly view BTC as a “digital gold” hedge, with institutional ETF inflows stabilising prices despite broader macro volatility.
Analyst View: Bitcoin is consolidating within an ascending channel, currently supported by the 68,831 zone. While geopolitical tensions create noise, the trend remains constructive. A break above the 72,828 resistance is required to clear the path toward the 74,086 peak or even higher.
Bias: Bullish above 68,800.
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