(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Summary
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Global Market Overview
U.S. stocks closed lower last Friday, with financial and tech stocks hit hard by persistent investor concerns. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their largest monthly percentage declines in a year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its steepest weekly drop since mid-November. With the U.S. and Israel launching strikes against Iran over the weekend, the Middle East has entered a new round of warfare. Expect global equities to face downward pressure today due to intense risk aversion.
Last Friday, gold prices climbed to a near one-month high, marking a seventh consecutive monthly gain. Geopolitical tensions surrounding extended nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran provided support, further bolstered by softening U.S. Treasury yields. Oil prices rose approximately 2% on Friday as traders braced for supply disruptions. Following the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, oil prices skyrocketed by over 8% on Monday, hitting multi-month highs.
Key Events Today:
- 15:00 EU GERMANY Retail Sales MoM JAN **
- 16:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Final FEB **
- 17:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final FEB **
- 17:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Final FEB **
- 22:45 US Manufacturing PMI Final FEB ***
- 23:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI FEB ***
Tomorrow:
- 05:10 RBA Governor Bullock Speech ***
- 07:30 JP Unemployment Rate JAN **
- 18:00 EU CPI YoY Flash FEB **
Markets Analysis 02/03/2026
- Resistance: 1.1799/1.1813
- Support: 1.1742/1.1731
The pair rose 0.18% to 1.1818 on Friday but recorded its first monthly decline since October. Persistent U.S. inflation data and geopolitical risks continue to bolster the Greenback, pushing back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts until at least June.
Analyst View: The pair is facing strong rejection at the 1.1799-1.1813 resistance zone, as evidenced by the recent long upper-wick candle. A failure to clear this zone suggests a potential slide back toward the 1.1731 support floor.
Bias: Mildly Bearish below 1.1800.
- Resistance: 1.3455/1.3472
- Support: 1.3379/1.3363
Sterling fell 1.53% in February, snapping a three-month winning streak. The pound’s volatility is currently capped by domestic political sensitivities ahead of the Chancellor’s budget update, while broader concerns over sticky global inflation and labor market cooling continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
Analyst View: The pair is trending lower within a descending channel. A recent sharp rejection at the 1.3455 resistance zone, followed by a breakdown below previous consolidations, suggests further downside risk toward the 1.3363 support floor.
Bias: Bearish bias below 1.3430.
- Resistance: 156.86/157.66
- Support: 155.61/154.97
The Yen remains weak against the Dollar, ending February with a 0.78% monthly decline. Despite periodic safe-haven inflows from Middle Eastern tensions, the pair is primarily driven by persistent interest rate differentials and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher rates for an extended period.
Analyst View: The pair is trading within an ascending broadening wedge. While currently consolidating near the 155.61 support level, the broader trend remains bullish. A sustained break above 156.86 could open the door for a retest of the 157.66 resistance zone.
Bias: Mildly Bearish bias below 156.50.
- Resistance: 74.46/75.77
- Support: 70.51/68.82
Crude prices jumped 12% toward $80 as the Hormuz Strait faced potential paralysis with over 250 tankers stranded. Despite OPEC+’s planned production hike in April, supply fears dominate the market, with traders warning that prices could breach $100 if military confrontations between Israel and Iran continue.
Analyst View: WTI prices exhibit a strong bullish breakout, surging through multiple Fibonacci extension levels in a single session. The immediate challenge lies at the 74.46 – 75.77 resistance zone; a sustained hold above the 70.51 support flip is essential to maintain this aggressive upward momentum.
Bias: Bullish bias above $70.
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
- Resistance: 5357/5398
- Support: 5259/5227
- Resistance: 95.47/98.84
- Support: 88.05/84.80
Spot gold surged 1.5% to $5,373.49, hitting a one-month high as US-Israel strikes on Iran ignited massive safe-haven demand. With geopolitical tensions escalating rapidly in the Middle East, analysts suggest the precious metal could soon test the critical $5,500 psychological resistance level.
Analyst View: Gold is trading within a sharp ascending channel, reflecting intense buying pressure. The price has cleared the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level ($5,291), suggesting that as long as it remains above the $5,259 support zone, the momentum is heavily skewed toward testing the upper resistance boundary near $5,400 and beyond.
Bias: Gold Bullish bias above $5,300.
- Resistance: 49226/49472
- Support: 48429/48188
The Dow fell 1.05% amid intensifying Middle East conflict and higher-than-expected PPI data, which shook investor confidence. Financial stocks struggled under the weight of European banking concerns, while the prospect of the Federal Reserve delaying rate cuts into the summer further pressured traditional blue-chip sectors during late Friday trading.
Analyst View: The index is trading within a broad ascending channel but has recently retreated from its upper resistance zone. A failure to reclaim the 49,226 level may lead to a further drift toward the 48,429 support floor.
Bias: Bearish bias below 49,000.
- Resistance: 25048/25227
- Support: 24471/24289
The NAS100 dropped 0.92%, concluding its worst monthly performance since March 2025. Despite strong earnings from industry leaders like Dell, chipmakers and software firms faced heavy selling pressure due to soaring AI-related costs and geopolitical uncertainty, leading to a continued retreat in major tech heavyweights like Nvidia.
Analyst View: The index is currently consolidating within a narrowing range following a significant pullback from recent highs. While it is holding above the 24,289 support zone, the immediate outlook remains cautious as the price struggles to overcome the 25,048 resistance area.
Bias: Bearish bias below 24,900.
- Resistance: 68278/69178
- Support: 64522/63652
Bitcoin dropped below $64,000 following the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, now down over 50% from its October 2025 peak. Decoupling from gold, the cryptocurrency is behaving as a high-risk asset as investors flee to traditional safe havens.
Analyst View: The pair is trading within a narrowing wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart. While currently testing the $63,652 – $64,522 support zone, a failure to hold this floor could trigger a deeper correction toward the crucial $60,000 psychological level.
Bias: Bearish below $68,278.
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