Market Highlight 23/02/2026
Over the weekend, Trump announced an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, reigniting policy uncertainty and driving a return of safe-haven demand. In early Asian trading, spot gold climbed to around $5,140, extending last week’s gains. Previously, U.S. Q4 GDP grew by only 1.4% (well below the 3.0% forecast), while core PCE rose 0.4% month-on-month, above expectations—forming a combination of “slowing growth + sticky inflation.” Markets continue to price in two rate cuts this year, with the first possibly in June.
U.S. equities closed higher last Friday, with the S&P 500 up 0.69%, the Nasdaq up 0.90%, and the Dow Jones up 0.47%. The Supreme Court’s rejection of emergency tariff measures briefly eased concerns, but the subsequent tariff escalation limited sustained risk recovery. The U.S. Dollar Index fell back to around 96.8, ending a four-day rally. The euro and pound edged higher, while USD/JPY held above 155.
Precious metal prices were supported by uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policies, which could trigger a new round of turmoil, coupled with increasing signs that the US might take military action against Iran. Spot gold closed up 2.1% on Friday at $5,104.34 per ounce. In the oil market, WTI settled at $66.39, both up more than 5% for the week. However, during Asian trading hours, WTI retreated to $65.9 amid escalating trade tensions. Geopolitical risks provided support, while demand concerns capped gains, keeping oil prices in a tug-of-war.
Key Outlook 23/02/2026
China and Japan are on holiday, so thinner Asian liquidity may amplify volatility. Focus in Europe is on Germany’s February Ifo index (forecast 88.4). A stronger reading could support the euro, while weakness may cap EUR/USD gains. In the U.S. session, December Factory Orders and the Dallas Fed index are due. Softer data would reinforce growth concerns, potentially pressuring the dollar and equities while supporting gold. Gold remains firm below 5,150 resistance, while oil trades range-bound amid demand concerns and geopolitical support.
Key Data and Events Today:
China Holiday
Japan Holiday
- 17:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate FEB**
- 23:00 US Factory Orders MoM DEC**
- 23:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index FEB **
Tomorrow:
- 09:00 CN Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y **
- 23:00 US CB Consumer Confidence FEB **
- 23:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index FEB **
Markets Analysis 23/02/2026
- Resistance: 1.1847 / 1.1866
- Support: 1.1766 / 1.1747
EUR/USD rebounds near 1.1780 as softer U.S. growth offsets sticky inflation. Rate-cut expectations remain divided. The price is approaching the 1.1847–1.1866 resistance; a failure there may trigger a pullback toward 1.1766. Short-term direction remains primarily driven by dollar sentiment.
- Resistance: 1.3562 / 1.3586
- Support: 1.3460 / 1.3430
Sterling recovers toward 1.3480 but remains sensitive to U.S. policy uncertainty. Strong UK retail sales offer limited support. Resistance at 1.3562–1.3586 caps upside; rejection could see a retest of 1.3460 support as Fed expectations dominate.
- Resistance: 155.54 / 156.36
- Support: 153.57 / 152.92
USDJPY holds above 155 as Japan’s inflation slows, limiting BOJ tightening prospects. Dollar strength persists amid tariff risks. Failure to sustain gains above 155.5 may lead to a pullback toward 153.57, keeping price action range-bound.
- Resistance: 66.76 / 67.35
- Support: 64.77 / 64.31
WTI trades near $65.9 as tariff escalation clouds demand outlook despite geopolitical support. Upside is capped at 66.76–67.35. A break below 64.77 could expose 64.31, with prices likely consolidating amid mixed drivers.
- Resistance: 5202 / 5268
- Support: 5098 / 5033
- Resistance: 88.05/92.21
- Support: 81.49/78.18
Gold rises toward $5,140 on renewed safe-haven demand and rate-cut expectations. Momentum improves above 5,098. Resistance stands at 5,202–5,268; pullbacks may find support near 5,098, keeping the broader bias tilted toward controlled upside.
- Resistance: 49,716 / 50,020
- Support: 49,224 / 48,978
The Dow Futures stabilise after recent gains but face caution from tariff escalation. Upside momentum fades near 50,020. A pullback toward 49,224 is possible as markets balance slowing growth and sticky inflation expectations.
- Resistance: 25,224 / 25,404
- Support: 24,641 / 24,464
The NAS100 remains supported by tech strength but faces policy uncertainty and earnings risk. Resistance at 25,224–25,404 limits rallies. A move below 24,641 could shift short-term momentum lower amid rate-sensitive positioning.
- Resistance: 69318/70790
- Support: 66078/64630
Bitcoin trades above $67,500 but remains pressured by rate uncertainty and U.S.-Iran tensions. U.S. GDP slowed to 1.4% while core PCE rose to 3%, supporting a higher-for-longer stance. Resistance sits near 69,318–70,790, with 66,078 and 64,630 as key supports.
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