Market Highlight 05/02/2026
U.S. equities closed mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower as technology stocks, including AMD and Palantir, declined. Investors grew concerned about elevated valuations and questioned whether Wall Street’s artificial intelligence (AI) boom has peaked. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.53%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.5% and the S&P 500 declined 0.51%. The U.S. dollar also edged higher against most major currencies, including the euro and the pound. Meanwhile, key U.S. employment data, originally scheduled for release on Friday, was postponed until next week, adding to uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
Gold prices finished higher, although they retreated intraday amid a stronger dollar and profit-taking. Investors are awaiting U.S. employment data and assessing geopolitical developments for further clues. Oil prices extended their rebound after media reports suggested that planned talks between the United States and Iran on Friday might be cancelled. However, after market close, U.S. officials confirmed that Iran and the United States will hold nuclear talks in Oman on Friday.
Key Outlook 05/02/2026
On Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision. Most economists expect the central bank to leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%, but markets still anticipate two rate cuts later this year, which will put the focus on the BoE’s guidance on the future rate path. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged, with investors closely watching the policy statement for any comments on how the euro’s valuation might influence the policy outlook.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 15:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders MoM DEC **
- 18:00 EU Retail Sales MoM DEC **
- 20:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision & Meeting Minutes ***
- 21:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision ***
- 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
- 21:45 ECB Press Conference ***
Tomorrow:
- New Zealand Holiday 01:40 BoC Governor Macklem Speech ***
- 15:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production MoM DEC**
- 21:30 CA Unemployment Rate JAN**
- 23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel FEB ***
Markets Analysis 05/02/2026
- Resistance: 1.1830/1.1890
- Support: 1.1771/1.1711
EUR/USD slipped towards 1.1806 as a firmer US Dollar capped gains amid delayed US jobs data. Price action shows momentum cooling after the sharp rally, with buyers hesitant below 1.1890. With flows remaining USD-driven rather than yield-spread-based, the pair may drift sideways unless fresh catalysts emerge.
- Resistance: 1.3667/1.3744
- Support: 1.3605/1.3543
GBP/USD edged lower towards 1.3605 as a firmer US Dollar weighed on Sterling, while delayed US payrolls kept traders sidelined. Recent upside momentum has clearly cooled, with rallies fading near 1.3667–1.3744. For now, price action points to consolidation rather than trend continuation, pending clearer signals from the BoE and US data.
- Resistance: 157.35/158.17
- Support: 156.51/155.67
USD/JPY extended its rebound to around 156.82, posting a fourth straight daily gain as Japan’s election uncertainty and fiscal stimulus expectations kept the Yen on the defensive. The recovery from sub-153 levels looks technically corrective rather than impulsive, with upside momentum likely to slow near 157.35–158.17 unless Dollar strength accelerates.
- Resistance: 65.57/66.48
- Support: 62.56/61.63
WTI trades around $64.3, supported by renewed Middle East risk amid uncertain U.S.–Iran nuclear talks. Buyers continue to defend the $61.63–62.56 area after the recent pullback, while upside momentum stalls near $65.57–66.48, leaving prices sensitive to geopolitical headlines.
- Resistance: 5144/5285
- Support: 4862/4688
- Resistance: 96.55/102.45
- Support: 83.35/77.35
Gold eases towards $5,000 as a firmer Dollar and profit-taking cap the rebound. Price action shows buyers remain active above $4,862–$4,688, suggesting the pullback is corrective rather than a trend break. With US data delayed and geopolitics unresolved, dips continue to attract interest.
- Resistance: 49758/49900
- Support: 49169/49030
Dow Futures climbed to around 49,500, supported by rotation into value and energy stocks as tech lagged. Price continues to respect the 49,169 – 49,030 area, keeping the broader structure stable. While momentum is not aggressive, defensive demand is helping the index remain resilient amid market caution.
- Resistance: 25224/25404
- Support: 24640/24463
NAS100 slid towards 22,900, pressured by renewed selling in AI and semiconductor stocks. Price broke back below the 25,224–25,404 resistance zone, shifting the short-term bias lower. With valuation concerns resurfacing, rebounds remain fragile unless buyers quickly reclaim lost ground.
- Resistance: 74509/76101
- Support: 70948/69382
Bitcoin slipped below $72,000, extending its decline toward the $70,948–69,382 support zone. Price remains confined within a falling channel, with rallies capped near $74,509–76,101. Citi notes BTC is now below the average US spot ETF entry at $81.6k, keeping downside pressure dominant for now.
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