Market Highlight 04/12/2025
US November ADP employment unexpectedly fell by 32,000, marking the largest decline in more than two and a half years. US equities closed higher on Wednesday as a series of economic reports continued to strengthen expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, though a drop in Microsoft’s share price capped broader gains. The Dow rose 0.86%, the S&P 500 gained 0.3%, and the Nasdaq added 0.17%. The US Dollar Index slipped 0.45% to 98.85, while the EUR/USD touched a nearly seven-week high and ended 0.43% higher at 1.1673.
Gold advanced and held steady into the close, supported by the weaker-than-expected ADP data, which reinforced bets on a rate cut next week. Silver surged to a historic all-time high. Oil prices also finished higher as the US and Russia failed to reach an agreement to end the war in Ukraine, although lingering concerns about oversupply limited the upside.
Key Outlook 04/12/2025
Today’s focus shifts to the Eurozone’s October retail sales, which are expected to show modest growth in line with recent regional data improvements. The US initial jobless claims report is forecast to increase to 220,000 from 216,000. Although last week’s reading hit a seven-month low, it does little to overshadow the growing signs of a cooling US labor market.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 16:00 EU Retail Sales MoM OCT **
- 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
Tomorrow:
- 15:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders OCT **
- 18:00 EU GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q3 ***
- 21:30 CA Unemployment Rate NOV **
- 23:00 US Core PCE Price Index SEP ***
- 23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel DEC ***
Markets Analysis 04/12/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1696/1.1721
- Support: 1.1631/1.1612
EUR/USD climbed to 1.1673 as Eurozone activity hit a 2.5-year high and weak U.S. ADP data strengthened expectations for a Fed rate cut. Dollar softness pushed the pair to a seven-week high. Technically, 1.1631 has turned into key support — holding above this zone keeps momentum biased toward 1.1696–1.1721.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3412/1.3455
- Support: 1.3317/1.3275
GBP/USD jumped over 1% as broad dollar weakness and soft U.S. jobs data lifted Fed rate-cut expectations to nearly 90%. Sentiment stayed bullish with risk assets firming. Technically, a clean breakout above 1.3317 turns the zone into support, keeping upside momentum toward 1.3412–1.3455.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 155.75/156.26
- Support: 154.74/154.25
USD/JPY dropped 0.47% as the yen strengthened on the BOJ’s firm rate-hike signal, while weak U.S. data boosted expectations of Fed easing. Technically, the pair rejected the 155.75–156.26 supply zone and remains capped by the descending trendline, keeping downside momentum toward 154.74.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 59.91/60.35
- Support: 58.55/57.99
WTI rose 0.5% to $58.95 as stalled U.S.–Russia peace talks reduced the odds of sanctions relief and additional Russian supply. But rising U.S. inventories limited upside. Technically, WTI is still trapped inside a symmetrical triangle, with resistance near 59.91 and support at 58.55; a breakout is needed to define the next directional move.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4245/4274
- Support: 4180/4151
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 59.29/60.14
- Support: 57.94/57.25
Gold held near $4,206 as weak U.S. private-sector jobs data lifted expectations of a Fed rate cut next week (~90%), while record-high silver added support. Technically, gold is coiling within a symmetrical triangle, with key support at $4,180; a breakout above $4,245 could open the door to $4,274 or higher.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 48432/48743
- Support: 47721/47404
The Dow futures increased by 0.86% as weak ADP data and a softer services PMI raised expectations of a Fed rate cut next week. Technically, the price has regained the 47,721–47404 support zone, and staying above this level keeps the momentum leaning higher towards 48,432, with dips likely to attract buyers.
NAS100
- Resistance: 25838/26182
- Support: 25293/25018
NAS100 added 0.17%, weighed by a 2.5% dip in Microsoft before partial recovery, though rate-cut expectations kept tech sentiment supported. Technically, price is holding above 25,293, with a successful retest likely to extend the move toward 25,838. Pullbacks remain buy-the-dip as long as the structure stays above support.
BTC
- Resistance: 96015/97889
- Support: 93065/91215
Bitcoin rebounded 6.9% to around $93,000 as the global bond selloff eased and markets refocused on the Fed’s expected December rate cut, which increased to 90% from 87% the day before. Sentiment improved as BOJ hike fears softened, though large holder flows still limit stability. Technically, BTC has turned the 93,065 level into support, keeping upside momentum intact towards 96,015 unless the price drops back below 92,000.
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