Market Highlight 28/11/2025
Overnight, U.S. markets were closed for the holiday, and the dollar index traded cautiously in a thin trading environment — rising early before retreating later, ending at 99.58 (+0.05%). It is set for its largest weekly decline in four months. EUR/USD dipped 0.05% to 1.1596.
Gold prices softened, pulling back from a nearly two-week high reached in the previous session as investors reassessed the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December. Spot gold settled at $4,157.27/oz, down 0.2%. Oil prices increased as market participants considered the possibility of progress in negotiations to end the Ukraine conflict. With the U.S. observing the Thanksgiving holiday, overall trading volume remained subdued.
Key Outlook 28/11/2025
The U.S. market reopens today but will close early, so trading conditions are expected to remain holiday-light. During the European session, Germany will release its November labor market report: the unemployment rate is likely to stay at a nine-month high of 6.3%, while unemployment change is forecast at +5,000 (previous −1,000). Germany’s November CPI is projected at 2.4% y/y (prior: 2.3%), unlikely to alter the ECB’s current policy stance.
Key Data and Events Today:
- 15:00 EU GERMANY Retail Sales OCT **
- 16:55 EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate NOV **
- 21:00 EU GERMANY CPI Prel NOV **
- 21:30 CA GDP SEP **
Key Data and Events Coming Week
- Monday: AU/JP/EU/GB/US Manufacturing PMI, BoJ Gov Ueda Speech, US ISM Manufacturing PMI & Construction Spending
- Tuesday: EU CPI & Unemployment Rate
- Wednesday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, AU GDP, AU/JP/EU/GB/US Services & Composite PMI, EU PPI, US ADP Employment Change, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- Thursday: EU Retail Sales, US Initial Jobless Claims
- Friday: GERMANY Factory Orders, EU GDP, US Core PCE Price Index, CA Unemployment Rate, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Markets Analysis 28/11/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1631/1.1656
- Support: 1.1573/1.1553
EUR/USD hovered around 1.1596 as Fed rate-cut expectations and a softer dollar kept the pair supported, while Ukraine peace headlines offered a mild additional boost. But weak Eurozone sentiment capped momentum. Technically, price is holding above the 1.1573 support zone, with buyers likely defending the highlighted demand block, potentially pushing toward 1.1631 resistance.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3285/1.3305
- Support: 1.3190/1.3169
GBP/USD held firm near 1.3230 as improved UK fiscal stability supported sentiment, while broad USD weakness—driven by strong Fed rate-cut expectations—kept the pair bid. With no key UK data, momentum was mostly USD-led. Technically, the pair is holding above 1.3190 support, with buyers likely defending the zone and setting up a potential push toward 1.3285 resistance.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 156.89/157.40
- Support: 155.76/155.25
USD/JPY dropped towards 156.30 as hawkish BoJ comments provided slight support to the yen, while talk of possible FX intervention kept traders cautious. Dollar weakness from rising Fed rate-cut expectations also limited gains. Technically, the price remains below 156.89 resistance, with the risk leaning towards a retest of 155.76 support.
US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)
- Resistance: 59.51/59.84
- Support: 58.52/58.10
WTI price steadied near $59.10 as expectations that OPEC+ will maintain output levels supported prices, while progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks added mild optimism in a quiet holiday trade. Technically, crude is adhering to its rising trendline, with an upside bias towards $59.51–$59.84 if the trendline holds.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4245/4274
- Support: 4151/4122
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 54.30/54.73
- Support: 53.00/52.45
Spot gold hovered near $4,162 during holiday-thinned trading, supported by renewed expectations of a December Fed rate cut after Kevin Hassett became the leading contender for Fed Chair. Low liquidity limited volatility, but market sentiment remained mildly bullish. Technically, the price stays above the $4,151 support level, with potential to rise towards $4,245 if the pattern continues to form higher levels.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 47721/48033
- Support: 47087/46769
The Dow futures was slightly up 0.15% amid thin holiday trading, buoyed by strong expectations of a Fed rate cut in December and optimism around dovish Fed-chair frontrunner Kevin Hassett. Wednesday’s 0.7% surge maintained positive momentum. Technically, prices are stabilising above 47,087, with a possible push towards 47,721 if higher prices continue to form.
NAS100
- Resistance: 25569/25838
- Support: 25020/24746
The NAS100 rose 0.1% as tech stocks stayed supported by strong Fed rate-cut expectations, even as Nvidia lagged on reports of Google building its own AI chips. AI optimism kept sentiment firm, following Wednesday’s 0.8% gain. Technically, the index broke above the descending trendline and is holding above 25,020, with room to retest 25,569 if higher persists.
BTC
- Resistance: 93065/94505
- Support: 89787/88322
Bitcoin rebounded above $91,000 as Fed rate-cut odds surged to nearly 85%, boosting risk appetite. Expectations that Kevin Hassett may lead to a more dovish Fed further support sentiment, though sticky inflation keeps some caution in place. Technically, BTC is holding firmly above the rising trendline, with dips toward $89,787 likely to attract buyers and push it toward $93,065 resistance.
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