Market Highlight 07/11/2025
U.S. stocks fell across the board on Thursday, with technology shares leading the decline as investors grappled with rising economic uncertainty and concerns over stretched valuations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.84%, the S&P 500 lost 1.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.9%. A private survey revealed further signs of labor market weakness, while the U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.42%.
Gold prices were volatile overnight, initially gaining support from a softer dollar and renewed safe-haven demand amid worries over the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and uncertainties surrounding the legality of U.S. tariffs. However, those gains faded later, with spot gold closing down 0.1% at $3,977.63 per ounce. Oil prices extended losses as investors weighed the risks of potential oversupply and weakening demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.
Key Outlook 07/11/2025
Today, markets await the preliminary reading of the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November, expected to remain steady at around 53.2 (previous 53.6). Canada will release its October employment report, with forecasts indicating a 7.1% unemployment rate and a potential decline in employment, which will likely keep pressure on the Bank of Canada to maintain a dovish stance.
Key Data and Events Today
- 11:00 CN Balance of Trade OCT **
- 09:30 CA Unemployment Rate OCT **
- 23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel NOV ***
Key Data and Events Coming Week:
- Monday: BoJ Summary of Opinions, AU Building Permits
- Tuesday: GB Unemployment Rate, EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- Wednesday: GERMANY CPI, OPEC Monthly Report
- Thursday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, JP PPI, AU Unemployment Rate, GB GDP, GB Industrial & Manufacturing Production, US CPI
- Friday: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, EU GDP & Employment Change, US PPI
Markets Analysis 07/11/2025
EURUSD
- Resistance: 1.1591/1.1613
- Support: 1.1498/1.1470
The euro extended its gains to around 1.1547 as the dollar weakened following disappointing U.S. labor data and growing expectations for a Fed rate cut. Technically, the pair has rebounded from 1.1498 support and may challenge the descending trendline near 1.1591. A breakout above this zone could shift momentum toward 1.1613.
GBPUSD
- Resistance: 1.3223/1.3249
- Support: 1.3059/1.3027
Sterling rose to around 1.3130 after the Bank of England kept rates unchanged, supported by a softer dollar and improving risk sentiment. The pair has broken above the descending trendline, turning near-term bias bullish with resistance seen at 1.3223. However, traders remain cautious ahead of the UK’s upcoming budget, which may include tax hikes.
USDJPY
- Resistance: 153.89/154.48
- Support: 152.53/151.93
USD/JPY hovered near 153.1 as a softer U.S. dollar offset improving global risk sentiment. The pair remains confined between 152.3 support and 153.89 resistance, showing hesitation ahead of upcoming U.S. data releases. A sustained break below 152.53 could trigger a deeper downside move toward 151.93, while a recovery above 153.9 may reopen the 154.48 level.
US Crude Oil Futures (DEC)
- Resistance: 61.03/61.82
- Support: 58.49/57.71
WTI steadied around $59.7 per barrel, logging a third consecutive monthly decline as oversupply worries and sluggish U.S. demand persisted. Technical support is seen at $58.49, where dip buyers may reemerge, but recovery toward $61.03 could encounter resistance amid weak refinery activity and rising inventories.
Spot Gold
- Resistance: 4052/4084
- Support: 3950/3918
Spot Silver
- Resistance: 48.97/49.33
- Support: 47.44/47.14
Gold hovered around $4,000 per ounce after briefly touching $4,020, supported by a weaker dollar and renewed safe-haven demand. The inclusion of silver in the U.S. critical minerals list added further bullish sentiment. Technical momentum remains constructive above $3,950, with a breakout above $4,020 likely to open the path toward $4,052–$4,084.
Dow Futures
- Resistance: 47431/47741
- Support: 46747/46441
The Dow futures slipped 0.84% as tech-led declines weighed on sentiment amid renewed concerns about valuation. The index is testing support around 46,747–46,441, where buying interest could reemerge. A rebound toward 47,431–47,741 remains possible if investors’ sentiment stabilizes, but failure to hold above 46,441 may expose deeper pullback risks.
NAS100
- Resistance: 25425/25714
- Support: 24960/24728
The NAS100 dropped 1.9% as AI-linked stocks weighed heavily on risk sentiment, extending the week’s tech-led correction. The index is currently testing short-term support at 24,960–24,728, with potential rebounds toward 25,425–25,714 if dip-buying resumes. However, failure to reclaim the trendline could invite further downside pressure.
BTC
- Resistance: 103530/105437
- Support: 98556/97088
Bitcoin extended its losses to around $102,000 as fragile risk appetite and reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut weighed on sentiment. Despite JPMorgan noting long-term upside potential toward $170,000, the near-term technical picture remains bearish, with the resistance at $103,530 still intact, and scope for a retest of the $98,556 support level.
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