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市場預計歐央行11年來首次加息,歐元的反彈契機到來了嗎?

今晚,歐洲央行即將公佈利率決議,市場普遍預計其將迎來11年來首次上調關鍵利率25個基點,也有市場人士預計可能加息50個基點,或者出現在9月加息50個基點的信號。 歐洲的政策制定者正陷入兩難的困境,一方面他們需要對抗通脹,而另一方面又要面對經濟衰退的風險。 此次加息信號對於歐元和歐洲市場會帶來什麼影響?

此次選擇加息的背後原因是由於俄烏戰爭導致能源及食品價格上漲,歐盟統計局本週二公佈數據顯示,歐元區6月調和CPI終值同比上漲8.6%,續創歷史新高,前值為8.1%。 其中,對歐元區6月通脹同比增幅貢獻最大的是能源價格,該大類價格同比上漲42%,遠高於食品、酒精和煙草8.9%的漲幅。

持續飆升的CPI數據,增加了市場對於歐洲央行大幅加息的預期,推動短線歐元兌美元開始反彈,對美元指數造成一定衝擊,並且歐元回升的勢頭可能在歐央行公佈利率決議之前得以持續。

eurozone inflation rate

高企的通脹的另一邊是歐元區經濟持續下行,歐洲多國都處於貿易逆差迅速擴大的困境之中。 尤其是德國,自1991年來該國首次出現貿易逆差,德國5月出口額同比增長11.7%至1258億歐元,進口額同比增長27.8%至1267億歐元,錄得近10億歐元的貿易逆差。 除了德國之外,貿易赤字也同樣發生在英國、法國、義大利等國家,由於美聯儲持續加息推升美元兌一攬子歐洲貨幣的匯率,令歐央行不得不選擇開始加息,試圖扭轉持續擴大的貿易逆差,從而提振歐元區GDP表現。

不過,市場普遍擔憂的是未來連續的加息會令歐洲市場陷入經濟衰退的可能性增加,因此在一定程度上限制了未來歐央行加息的幅度。 受到高通脹和冬季能源短缺風險的雙重壓力,歐盟初步預計今明兩年歐元區GDP增長分別為2.6%、1.4%,這些數據均低於5月份預測的2.7%、2.3%。

在過去一段時間,隨著美聯儲不斷加息,歐元匯率持續處於下跌狀態,其一度跌至和美元平價的水準,並且屢次刷新20年的新低,市場也在觀望此次歐元的反彈會持續多久。 從目前歐洲經濟情況來看,歐元前景仍然不明朗,主要是因為低迷的經濟數據讓歐元在市場中仍被看空。 花旗集團分析師日前表示,歐元的“無序波動”至0.90美元至0.95美元區間的風險越來越大。

eur-usd chart

短期內,歐元匯率的確有可能在加息的憧憬中有所回升,加上美元在過去幾個月已經累積了較多升幅,市場逐漸消化了加息的消息之後,美元的匯率可能在未來有所回調,從而令過去持續低迷的歐元有所受益,加上歐元區即將開始的緊縮政策正在為歐元提供支援。

長遠來看,歐元區的加息之路註定不會平坦,當市場逐漸消化對加息的預期,投資者需要密切留意加息對於各項經濟數據的影響,若加息產生的負面影響抵消其為歐元帶來的反彈動力,反而有可能令歐元重新回到下行通道。

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