差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美國物價瘋漲,通脹水平續創新高,貨幣政策陷兩難!

受俄烏局勢影響,國際油價、糧食及其他大宗商品紛紛迎來漲價潮,這對於美國本來就高企的通脹,可以說是雪上加霜。美國公佈2月消費者物價指數(CPI)同比上升7.9%,與先前市場的預期一致,其中汽油價格上漲6.4%,佔CPI漲幅的一半以上。

 

美國勞工部上月表示,1月份CPI同比增長7.5%,達到自1982年2月以來的最高水平。當時這一數字出爐就讓市場大感驚訝,因為甚至超出市場普遍預期的7.2%-7.3%的上限水平,如今這一數據再次被刷新。由於俄烏緊張局勢仍在影響著全球金融市場,俄羅斯也逐漸實施反制措施,美國物價會不會就此見頂還存在很大變數。

 

美國物價或逼近峰值

拜登政府此前的工作重心一直放在遏制國內高企的通脹,由於強勁的國內消費需求以及因受疫情影響供應鏈中斷,不斷推升美國市場物價水平,市場剛剛消化物價觸及40年來的最高漲幅,但是緊接著俄烏之間爆發戰爭,物價再度大幅上漲。

經濟學家預計稱,由於俄烏衝突以及對俄嚴厲制裁導致石油、糧食等主要商品價格上升,美國的通脹可能在本月或下個月達到8%至9%的峰值。這不難讓市場增加了對美聯儲提前加息的擔憂,並且很有可能增加今年加息的次數。

美國聖路易斯聯儲主席布拉德早前就對媒體表示,希望美聯儲能夠盡快加息50個基點。如果成真,這將是2000年以來首次一次會議決定加息50個基點。不過,他也說是否3月加息50個基點還沒有確定。

 

原油價格大幅飆升

俄烏之間的衝突對原油和農產品價格影響最為明顯。美國已經宣布對俄羅斯實施能源進口禁令,英國宣布今年底前分階段取消進口俄國石油,對俄製裁令讓原油價格一舉衝破了100美元大關,截止3月10日,美國紐約WTI原油收報每桶106.02美元,布倫特原油收報每桶109.33美元,並且俄烏戰爭以來原油期貨價格已經上漲超30%。美國已經宣布釋放5000萬桶戰略儲備石油,增加開發國內石油和天然氣,並且推動清潔能源的應用,旨在抑制飆升的能源價格。

 

bloomberg(來源:Bloomberg)

 

雖然油價大幅攀升,但是對美國經濟恢復的影響暫時有限,國內消費需求保持強勁。摩根大通經濟學家Peter McCrory表示,油價上漲一定程度上將對GDP增長構成威脅,但大摩預計今年GDP增速仍將高於趨勢水平。

 

除油價外,糧食價格也備受市場關注,據2021年美國農業部統計數據,俄羅斯和烏克蘭兩國共佔全球逾四分之一小麥出口、約二成玉米出口和八成葵花油出口。兩國之間的戰爭衝突導緻小麥價格一度出現大幅震盪,芝加哥交易所(CBOT)交投最活躍的小麥期貨合約,經歷連續 6 個交易日漲停之後出現暴跌,曾一度飆升至每蒲式耳 13.635 美元。從美國小麥協會發布的最新報告也能看出小麥期貨價格自2月以來呈現持續上升勢頭。

 

wheat association(來源:美國小麥協會3月4日報告)

 

由於大多數經濟學家都將2%作為通脹目標,美國顯然已經長時間大幅度偏離這一目標,市場風險也會上升。如果未來俄烏局勢繼續推升油價繼續上漲達到150美元,美國國內的通脹率將會更高,CPI數據將可能突破8%以上。然而,目前有市場人士預測,油價將會在今年年底前突破每桶180美元,甚至有交易員押注3月底前,油價就會飆升至每桶200美元。

由於2月美國通脹再度爆表,美聯儲未來或會繼續提高抑制通貨膨脹的政策力度,貨幣政策收緊的步伐可能還會加快,加息的次數也可能增加。不過,正如目前市場普遍所擔憂的那樣,一邊是通脹持續飆升,一邊是緊縮政策可能帶來消費需求的抑制,還可能使經濟面臨衰退的風險,同時也會影響經濟復甦的步伐。所以,美國經濟正面臨著兩難的選擇。

最近的新聞
開啟線上交易吧 !
免費使用我們的模擬帳戶來學習交易。當您準備好後,您可切換到真實帳戶並開始進行真實交易。
Popular posts
ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website https://www.atfx.com/en-ae/ are not suitable
in your country. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or
constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments.
Please visit https://www.atfx.com/en/ to proceed.

ATFX

使用限制

本网站的产品及服务不适合英国居民。网站内部的信息和素材不应被视为分销,要约,买入或卖出任何投资产品。请继续访问 https://www.atfx.com/en-za/

ATFX

使用限制

本网站的产品及服务不适合英国居民。网站内部的信息和素材不应被视为分销,要约,买入或卖出任何投资产品。请继续访问 https://atfxgm.eu/en/

ATFX

使用限制

本网站的产品及服务不适合英国居民。网站内部的信息和素材不应被视为分销,要约,买入或卖出任何投资产品。请继续访问 https://www.atfx.com/en/

ATFX

使用限制

本网站的产品及服务不适合英国居民。网站内部的信息和素材不应被视为分销,要约,买入或卖出任何投资产品。请继续访问 https://www.atfx.com/ar/

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://www.atfx.com/ar/ to proceed.
ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://www.atfx.com/en/ to proceed.

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://atfxgm.eu/en/ to proceed.

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://www.atfx.com/en-au/ to proceed.

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://www.atfx.com/ar/ to proceed.
ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://www.atfx.com/en/ to proceed.

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://www.atfx.com/en-za/ to proceed.
ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for Hong Kong residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, solicitation to buy or sell any investments.

使用限制: 本網站的產品及服務不適合香港居民使用。網站內部的信息和素材不應被視為分銷,要約,買入或賣出任何投資產品。

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://atfxgm.eu/en/ to proceed.

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

AT Global Markets (UK) Limited does not offer trading services to retail clients.
If you are a professional client, please visit https://www.atfxconnect.com/