差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美CPI創40年高位 預期加息更快來臨

美國1月CPI年率報7.3%,創逾40年高位。投資市場認為,聯儲局加息步伐和幅度將較預期加快,料下月聯儲局議息可能將原先預期加息0.25%調升至0.5%,並且可能宣布加快縮減買債計劃及開始縮減負債表,美元扭轉前一星期疲弱表現重返96水平。

 

PPI倘高企將支撐美元

現時美國通脹高企問題持續,關註明日美國1月PPI結果,留意出廠價格會否影響未來通脹高企問題持續。市場估計美國1月PPl月率由前值0.2%升至0.4%,焦點年率數據預期由上月9.7%回落至8.9%。若PPI數據顯示仍然高企,有機會觸動聯儲局加快收緊貨幣政策的決心,並可能大擔提高加息幅度和步伐。這種情景下,新興市場上的資金有機會加快流向美元,為美元提供更強支撐和上升空間。

 

另一項短期影響美元走勢的重要因素之一,相信是烏俄局勢變化。週末前美軍情報指,俄軍在烏克蘭邊境已經較前一星期增強兵力並料軍事行動將最快在星期三升級入侵烏克蘭。據該軍事情報,美軍已調派兵力支援烏軍前線,烏國鄰近國家波蘭亦增派兵力慎防美烏俄三軍動武。地緣政治緊張昇級,部分資金流向美元避險,支持美元上升。

 

歐洲央行無意加息對付通脹

涉及歐洲地緣政治局勢緊張,歐洲貨幣或會受到影響。加上歐洲央行表示,歐羅區通脹高企問題持續,但央行無意取消資產買債計劃(APP)和加息。這些明確言論使歐羅強勢較前星期改變,歐羅兌美元由高見1.1490後被打擊,重返1.13水平。

 

預期本星期地緣政治緊張氣氛持續,一旦戰事升級發動攻擊,資金隨即加快流入美元避險,歐洲貨幣貨幣將會直接承壓。歐羅兌美元有機會指向1.12或1.11水平。技術上,1.1269及1.1225為首支持範圍,下一步將看1.1185或1.1138。

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