差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

以色列襲擊伊朗油田後,原油市場處於緊張

上週,在以色列和伊朗開始報復性打擊後,原油和天然氣價格飆升。

USOIL – Daily Chart
美國原油-每日圖表

上週五油價飆漲10%,隨後回落至7%。在伊朗宣布其最大的天然氣田部分關閉後,油價有可能在周一上漲。

「這是一個爆炸性的局勢,儘管我們看到去年4月和10月以色列和伊朗直接攻擊對方時,局勢可能會迅速緩和,」Vanda Insights的Vandana Hari表示。

「這也可能演變成一場更大的戰爭,擾亂中東的石油供應,」她補充說。

凱投宏觀的分析師表示,如果伊朗的石油生產和出口成為制裁目標,布蘭特原油價格可能輕鬆躍升至每桶80至100美元左右。然而,他們表示,這樣的油價飆升將鼓勵其他產油國增加產量,最終限制價格上漲和對通膨的影響。

這次襲擊導致每天1200萬立方米的天然氣產量暫停。該氣田提供了該國約66%的國內天然氣,這對電力、暖氣和石化至關重要。伊朗目前是僅次於美國和俄羅斯的世界第三大天然氣生產國,年產量約2,750億立方米,佔全球產量的6.5%。

多年的國際制裁意味著,大部分天然氣是在國內消費的,儘管有些天然氣出口到伊拉克等國,而卡達也從該氣田出口,因為它與埃克森美孚和殼牌等全球能源公司達成了協議。

「這可能是自Abqaiq以來對石油和天然氣基礎設施最重要的攻擊,」Rystad Energy分析師Jorge Leon表示,他指的是2019年對沙烏地阿拉伯石油設施的襲擊,那次襲擊震動了全球市場。

摩根大通分析師認為,最糟的情況是布蘭特原油價格達到130美元,尤其是如果這影響到霍爾木茲海峽的話。霍爾木茲海峽是全球近20%石油供應的通道。這樣的事件可能會使伊朗210萬桶/日的石油出口從市場上消失,並損害沙烏地阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯合大公國等其他海灣產油國。

分析師表示,在這種情況下,石油庫存可能大幅下降,導致恐慌性購買。

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