差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

6月美聯儲會議紀要前瞻:鷹派立場仍會是主調?

本周備受市場關注的6月美聯儲會議紀要即將揭曉,從6月中旬如期加息75個基點的情況看,6月的會議紀要很大概率是較為鷹派的,會繼續強調抑制通脹升幅的決心。 投資者更希望的是從此次會議紀要中找尋到未來可能的加息路徑,以及美聯儲是否有評估持續加息對於經濟的前景影響,這也會進一步指引美元和美股的後續走勢。

從今年以來,美聯儲已經先後將基準利率上調了150個基點,市場普遍擔心美國經濟事實上已經開始步入衰退。 但是從最近鮑威爾的發言看,他並沒有改變應對通脹的決心,並且表示即使過程可能較為“痛苦”也要堅持走下去。

美聯儲主席鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)在此前講話指出,相較於加息過高而使經濟陷入衰退的可能性,他更擔心無法遏制高通脹的風險。 他認為美聯儲必須迅速加息,即使這樣做會增加經濟衰退的風險,也要避免出現更嚴重的經濟風險,即通脹上升的局面變得根深蒂固。 至於加息的幅度,他表示,由於擔心最近一段時間高通脹可能導致消費者和價格制定者預計物價持續上升,美聯儲沒有逐步上調利率的資本。

鮑威爾的話中仍然沒有改變美聯儲鷹派加息立場的主調,但是也反映出美聯儲希望在減輕經濟衰退和有效遏制通脹之間尋求平衡點。 從市場反應看也是普遍認為加息會持續下去,據芝商所的「美聯儲觀察」工具,目前市場預計美聯儲在7月份加息75個基點的概率達85.6%,加息50個基點的概率為則14.4%。

這些言論對於短期的美元走勢繼續形成支持,不過早前已經有出現加息預期下調的看法,當前市場還在等待7月13日美國即將公佈的6月CPI數據,以判斷最新的經濟形勢,若經濟下行幅度過大會影響美元的上升動力。 另外,歐洲央行基於在7月開啟加息計劃,並且預計在9月之後會有更多加息,不排除持續加息的可能性,這令到歐元近期開始走強,對於美元的未來走勢會造成一些上升的限制。

us index chart

(美元指數走勢圖)

由此可見,雖然今年上半年美元走勢表現非常突出,若以華爾街日報的美元指數來看,這項追蹤美元兌 16 種貨幣走勢的指數今年來累計上揚 8%,創下2010 年以來同期最好表現,但是步入下半年美元走勢增加了不少的下行和制約因素,可能會不及上半年出現的一路大幅上漲的表現。 除非環球經濟出現下行壓力,那麼資金會進入美元進行避險,美元有可能重拾動力。

消息面上看,美國股市的前景仍然不樂觀,尤其是市場擔憂美國經濟甚至是世界主要經濟體陷入經濟衰退局面,與此同時高昂的物價仍然席捲了各國市場。 6月美聯儲會議紀要大概率仍會強調控制通脹的迫切性以及對6月加息措施的解釋,預計對於美國股市走勢將不會形成利好,若出現鷹派立場可能推升美元走勢,也可能令美元出現高位震蕩,相應的近期徘徊在1800美元關口上方的金價可能受壓。

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