差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

原油市場需求正逐漸上升,油價會再度一路走高嗎?

早前有所回調的國際油價近期再度一路上漲,截至5月27日漲至119.43美元高位,供需之間的不平衡加劇推升油價。 市場關注的歐佩克和非歐佩克產油國部長級會議將在本週三舉行,屆時油價很可能會出現走勢波動的行情。

crude oil price

有消息人士對外媒透露, OPEC+將在6月2日的會議中將堅持目前每月增產43.2萬桶/天的政策。 當前原油供應方面的壓力仍然持續,一方面是因為西方對俄制裁加劇,另一方面是一些石油產量較小的國家難以跟上當前的配額,導致OPEC+前幾個季度並沒有達到增產的產量目標。

就目前來看,消息面上支撐油價短期上行的因素較多。 首先是OPEC+作為主要的供應方,很可能維持目前的增產配額,其實美國和歐洲國家都希望其進一步增產為油價降溫。 投資者需要密切留意即將在週三召開的會議上所釋放出的資訊,若仍然維持當前的配額,依然無法打消市場對於供應不足擔憂,為油價的進一步上行提供空間。

同時,西方國家正在進一步推進對俄羅斯的原油制裁,對國際原油供應不斷形成壓力。 有市場消息稱,歐盟考慮將保險公司作為對俄石油貿易制裁工具,對海運進口原油的封鎖將在六個月內分階段實施,對成品油進口的封鎖將分8個月實施。

其次,無論是美國還是中國,對於原油的需求都呈現上升趨勢。 美國的高峰駕駛季節到來,一般從5月底開始持續至9月的勞工節結束,在一時間段美國人的出行需求會上升,對於原油的需求也會呈現上升趨勢。 上周美國原油和汽油庫存下降,其中美國原油庫存總量減少近700萬桶,加劇了即將到來的需求高峰燃料短缺的情況。 而隨著上海宣佈自6月1日起全面有序復工複產復市,來自中國的原油需求預計會逐漸恢復,也有利於支撐油價上行。

綜合來看,油價仍然有上升的機會,因此能源股的前景依然可觀,加上進入加息周期之後防禦型的能源股估值依舊偏低、基本面強健並且具有較好的抗通膨屬性,現時美國的通脹仍然沒有得到抑制,加息的進程或仍會持續,能源股成了受到投資者青睞的避險工具。 能源股的良好表現也帶動了能源相關的ETF表現,在今年前 4 個月,美國天然氣 ETF(UNG) 漲幅最大,漲幅達到了 100.16%。

然而,仍有一些因素可能會制約油價的上行,例如近期猴痘病毒在歐洲國家傳播,如果感染人數進一步增多加上新的隔離措施的出現,可能會抑制歐洲國家原油需求的上漲。 而且,如果油價上升過快,消費者也有可能調整習慣降低對石油的消費,從而令油價漲幅受限。

此外,俄烏戰爭以來,鋁、銅、石油等大宗商品價格水漲船高,進一步增加了投資者對於低碳能源投資板塊的關注,綠色能源、代替能源行業前景良好並且適合中長線的投資。 隨著清潔能源更加受到市場的關注,也會讓投資者選擇投資更多的綠色能源股,一方面也會對傳統能源股走勢帶來壓力。

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