差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

利比亞原油受阻加劇供應緊張,油價會再度攀升嗎?

近期,國際油價走勢震盪,利比亞石油出口受阻,加劇了市場對全球原油供給的擔憂。據外媒報導顯示,由於部族武裝已奪取東北海岸沿線和南部多個石油出口終端,該國命令國家石油公司下屬5個分公司暫停石油出口,總共涉及50多處油田和多座油港。

俄烏之間的戰爭仍然未有停火跡象,這些因素均對國際油價形成利好支持,全球原油供應緊張局面或會持續,將有利於油價保持高位。那麼,未來油價有望反彈並再度飆升嗎?

 

全球原油供應更加緊張

利比亞於1962年加入OPEC,已探明原油儲量為非洲第一。利比亞國家石油公司表示,封鎖石油出口的命令影響石油生產,眼下利比亞全國僅有兩座油田維持運作,天然氣和電力供應馬上將出現短缺。

利比亞國內問題難以快速解決,未來封鎖油田或者突然出頭受阻的事件可能還會發生。因此,短期來看會對國際油價造成支持,但震盪上行的幅度不會過大。事實上,在對全球供應的加劇擔憂之下,國際油價在過去的連續4個交易日上漲,隨後出現回調。

聯合國秘書長古特雷斯19日就利比亞問題呼籲採取緊急措施,制止利比亞爆發全面內戰。目前各國政府加緊斡旋,希望以此來推動和平,促使雙方停火。如果事態升級,或會為油價帶來新一輪的升幅,還需要密切留意當地局勢。

 

油價未來上升動能有哪些?

中國是全球最大原油進口國,由於防疫限制其經濟活動在3月份放緩,對油價產生了一定抑製作用。但是,未來隨著疫情得到控制,吞吐量數據恢復正常水平之後,將無法再對上漲因素形成抵消作用。加上美元匯率上升對油價形成一定抑製作用,成為近日油價下行的主要因素。

截止4月19日收盤,WTI 5月原油期貨收跌5.22%,報102.56美元/桶。布倫特6月原油期貨收跌5.22%,報107.25美元/桶。

除了利比亞停產之外,俄烏之間戰爭形勢仍然不容樂觀。由於美國已經宣布5 月起的半年內將釋出每日 100 萬桶,預計持續到秋初共可釋出 1.8 億桶儲油。但俄烏戰事若持續拖長,原油庫存將迅速被消耗,屆時供給依然趕不上需求的增長,加上對俄製裁造成的原油供應缺口,可能使今年內油價進一步上漲。

我們還應關注OPEC成員國的增產計劃,13個成員國3月份每日僅增產約5.7萬桶石油,遠遠不及目標,加上中國近期的防疫封鎖也會影響其增產的意願,供應不足的現狀仍然會持續。

短期來看,美國和其他各國向全球市場釋出戰略原油儲備、中國方面需求的驟減、美元匯率走高等下行因素也會一定程度抑製油價的飆升,造成近期油價在高位震盪。正如美國銀行所估計,今年夏天的油價可能會被限制在每桶 120 美元,下調了油價在今年中旬飆升的前景。

 

中長期而言,油價的供需不平衡將對油價形成持續的支持,油價在高位震蕩的行情或仍會持續較長時間。

最近的新聞
Popular posts
ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://www.atfx.com/ar/ to proceed.
ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://www.atfx.com/en/ to proceed.

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://atfxgm.eu/en/ to proceed.

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://www.atfx.com/en-au/ to proceed.

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://www.atfx.com/ar/ to proceed.
ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://www.atfx.com/en/ to proceed.

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://www.atfx.com/en-za/ to proceed.
ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for Hong Kong residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, solicitation to buy or sell any investments.

使用限制: 本網站的產品及服務不適合香港居民使用。網站內部的信息和素材不應被視為分銷,要約,買入或賣出任何投資產品。

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

Products and Services on this website are not suitable for the UK residents. Such information and materials should not be regarded as or constitute a distribution, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any investments. Please visit https://atfxgm.eu/en/ to proceed.

ATFX

Restrictions on Use

AT Global Markets (UK) Limited does not offer trading services to retail clients.
If you are a professional client, please visit https://atfxconnect.com