差价合约是复杂的金融交易产品,可带来由杠杆作用而导致迅速亏损的高风险。大部分的零售投资者帐户在跟交易差价合约时录得资金亏损。您应当考虑您是否充分明白差价合约如何运作,以及您是否能承受您的资金损失的高风险。

VIX恐慌指数飙升超两成!美股何时扭转颓势?

近日,美股大幅走低,VIX恐慌指数一路飙升,在过去5天飙升了约28%。由于“恐慌指数”是衡量市场对未来30天波动性预期的一种重要方法,其急剧飙升也让市场对于美股未来的走势充满了担忧。与此同时,美股本周迎来财报季,陆续有近180家标普500指数的成分企业将在近期公布财报,包括谷歌母公司Alphabet、微软、苹果及亚马逊等众多科技巨头,因此市场对于这些公司Q1表现也格外关注,并把他们视为支撑近期美股反弹的重要动力

volatility index

美股下行的主要原因是市场正在消化美联储日益迫近的加息消息,正如早前美联储主席鲍威尔表示,该局准备必要时在下次会议上加息0.5个百分点。很明显美国主要官员对加息的态度比更早前的讲话更加激进,美联储更加鹰派的加息举动让市场感到不安,对于美联储在年内大幅加息的预期持续升温,对于美股产生下行压力。

进入4月以来美股就进入了下行周期,标普500从4月1日的4545.86点跌至目前的4287.50点,下跌幅度为7.43%;纳指跌幅更大,从4月初的14532.55点大跌至12790.74点,跌幅达到了近12%,美股的集体大跌让市场的恐慌指数不断飙升。

us stock sp500

另一方面,股市大幅下行的原因是由于市场上充满对美国经济陷入衰退的担忧,IMF将美国经济增长预测下修至3.7%,这也推升了近期美元作为避险资产的需求。美元汇率在近日大幅上涨,美元指数一度上涨逾0.4%,至102.23高点,为2020年3月以来的最高水平,而美元的走强也让黄金的价格持续承压

短期来看,由于当前市场主要担忧美联储大幅加息对美国经济的影响,待下月美联储加息决定尘埃落定之后,股市近期低迷的行情有望出现缓和。由于目前市场走势已经消化了美联储加大加息力度的影响,预计若如市场预期一样加息0.5个百分点不会令到股市大幅承压,前提是美联储不会在下月会议上释放出更加激进的加息信号,否则股市的低迷行情或许还会持续更长时间,并且金价也会继续承压。整体而言,下月的美联储决议将成为潜在的短期市场情绪转折点。

不少市场分析人士预计这一轮下行周期还尚未见底,据华尔街日报称,摩根士丹利首席投资官Mike Wilson对2022年股市下行目标位显得有些悲观,他对媒体表示,美国股市4月虽大幅下跌,但回调幅度可能还不够,尚不具备持续反弹的条件。

另外,受财报季的影响市场走向仍存在较大不确定性,若经济数据持续低迷,因担心整体经济放缓而抛售股票也会继续拖累美股。长远来看,如何有效抑制通胀的同时不让经济陷入衰退成为美股未来能够保持上行的关键所在。

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