紧张局势及需求推升投资前景,WTI原油价格大涨

对夏季需求强劲的预期和对石油供应问题的担忧推动了原油价格。

USOIL – Daily Chart

USOIL图表

由于对中东紧张局势和夏季燃料需求增加的担忧,美国原油期货已升至每桶83.60美元左右。由于担心以色列和黎巴嫩真主党之间的冲突可能扰乱全球石油供应,交易员正在建立多头头寸。加勒比地区的四级飓风贝丽尔也加剧了人们的担忧。

强劲的夏季需求继续支撑油价,最近的EIA数据显示,石油产品的产量和需求在4月份达到峰值。然而,美国持续高利率的可能性可能会限制油价上涨,从而可能减缓经济增长并减少石油需求。

相反,美国持续的高利率可能会减缓经济增长,抑制石油需求,从而对油价施加下行压力。旧金山联邦储备银行行长戴利最近评论说,虽然目前的货币政策是有效的,但降息的时机仍然不确定。戴利强调:“如果通货膨胀仍然顽固或缓慢下降,利率可能需要在较长一段时间内保持在高位。”

从技术角度来看,石油市场正处于一个看涨的结构中,形成了更高的高点和低点。随着市场结构的确认,是寻求买入的最佳时机。然而,目前的价格位置并不适合入场,因为价格太高。在此建立多头头寸将需要巨额止损和少量获利,意味着糟糕的风险回报比。

在我看来,保持耐心并等待价格回撤到50%或61.8%的斐波那契区域是一个谨慎的策略。这种方法,加上趋势线的支撑,提供了潜在的反转和有利可图的长期头寸。

最近的新闻
由于鲍威尔中性基调削弱美元,欧元兑美元反弹

欧元兑美元周二攀升至1.16上方,受助于美联储主席鲍威尔的谨慎政策立场,以及法国政治紧张局势暂时缓和,此前法国政府暂停了备受争议的养老金改革。 鲍威尔在一个经济论坛上发表讲话,重申了“逐次会议”的利率决策方式,并表示劳动力市场的风险现在比通胀担忧更重要。虽然他指出,经济仍比预期强劲,但他承认就业方面的脆弱性日益增加,这增强了人们对进一步放松货币政策的预期。

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