尽管美元乏力,黄金价格依然疲软

在美元小幅反弹后,黄金价格在3341美元的水平上遇到了一些阻力。

XAUUSD – Daily Chart
现货黄金-日线图

黄金的阻力位为3,370美元,并可能向3,300美元的水平进行更大的修正。

尽管美元今年出现了1986年以来最糟糕的开局,但金价还是暂停了涨势。同样令人惊讶的是,美国卷入伊朗的威胁并没有推高金价。

一位大宗商品专家表示,黄金的涨势可能即将结束,他预计明年年底金价将跌至远低于每盎司3,000美元的水平。

花旗研究大宗商品主管Max Layton预计,明年下半年金价将在2,500 – 2,700美元左右,相当于下跌约900美元。

Layton在接受彭博社采访时表示:“我们认为2026年的黄金走势非常悲观。”“短期内,我们预计第三季度的平均价格约为3200美元,第四季度为3000美元。”

过去两年,金价上涨逾70%,Layton过去两年一直看好黄金。他说,由于经济放缓和全球不确定性,许多人正在购买黄金,因为他们的家庭财富存在风险。

“今年金价从2600美元涨至3300美元,都是因为投资者购买金条和金币,尤其是金条,因为他们在对冲美国和全球经济增长的下行风险,以及与美国和全球经济增长下行相关的股市下行风险,而美国和全球经济增长下行的原因是,按历史标准衡量,美国的利率仍然极高,再加上关税。”

然而,他现在认为,由于需求减弱、美国预期降息以及经济前景改善,价格将下跌。

莱顿说:“我们即将在国会通过《一个美丽的大法案》。“我们认为,这将标志着人们对美国经济增长的看法发生转变,基本上是小幅下降,甚至是适度下降,甚至可能到明年年底,在中期选举之前,利率也会下降。”

这项法案将对美国经济产生净刺激作用,将减少对经济增长的担忧,带来更多的积极因素,减少对黄金的投资购买。”“有了这个,你基本上解除了旧价格从2600美元上涨到3300美元的最后700美元的主要驱动因素。”

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