中国服务业PMI指数发布

中国将于周四发布财新服务业PMI数据。

CHI 50 - Weekly Chart

CN50 -周线图

CN50指数似乎跟随全球股市走低,目前支撑位在12390-13000点,这对上升趋势至关重要。

3月份财新制造业采购经理人指数为51.2,低于预期的50.6和2月份的50.8。在此之前,周一的“官方”调查也显示,3月份制造业增长强于预期。

美国市场通常会受中国经济实力的影响,但关税对前景产生了影响。周四将公布服务业数据,预计读数为51.6。

中国经济面临着不确定的时期,因为出口占其GDP的20%,贸易冲击将产生重大影响。工厂正在寻找新客户来销售他们的产品,避开美国,但由于海外消费主义没有蓬勃发展,这可能很难做到。

最新的PMI数据表明,在政府刺激措施的推动下,中国经济正在改善,但现在将受到关税的影响。中国股市最近的任何上涨都是由科技股推动的,而不是支持其他新兴市场。

瑞银集团驻伦敦的新兴市场研究主管Manik Narain表示,中国的优异表现是“受到科技驱动的具体推动,消费从投资转向消费,这对其他新兴市场国家不太可能产生巨大的溢出影响”。“这不是2009年、2016年和2020年的经典中国剧本,后者最终演变成更广泛的新兴市场复苏。”

最近经济出现了亮点,但特朗普的贸易战可能会损害最近的复苏。

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