中国服务业PMI指数发布

中国将于周四发布财新服务业PMI数据。

CHI 50 - Weekly Chart

CN50 -周线图

CN50指数似乎跟随全球股市走低,目前支撑位在12390-13000点,这对上升趋势至关重要。

3月份财新制造业采购经理人指数为51.2,低于预期的50.6和2月份的50.8。在此之前,周一的“官方”调查也显示,3月份制造业增长强于预期。

美国市场通常会受中国经济实力的影响,但关税对前景产生了影响。周四将公布服务业数据,预计读数为51.6。

中国经济面临着不确定的时期,因为出口占其GDP的20%,贸易冲击将产生重大影响。工厂正在寻找新客户来销售他们的产品,避开美国,但由于海外消费主义没有蓬勃发展,这可能很难做到。

最新的PMI数据表明,在政府刺激措施的推动下,中国经济正在改善,但现在将受到关税的影响。中国股市最近的任何上涨都是由科技股推动的,而不是支持其他新兴市场。

瑞银集团驻伦敦的新兴市场研究主管Manik Narain表示,中国的优异表现是“受到科技驱动的具体推动,消费从投资转向消费,这对其他新兴市场国家不太可能产生巨大的溢出影响”。“这不是2009年、2016年和2020年的经典中国剧本,后者最终演变成更广泛的新兴市场复苏。”

最近经济出现了亮点,但特朗普的贸易战可能会损害最近的复苏。

最近的新闻
黄金反弹至4100美元上方,因投资者在美国CPI公布前调整仓位

周四金价回升至4100美元上方,XAUUSD现货黄金报4145美元,上涨1.1%,因投资者在周五关键的美国通胀报告出炉前重新调整头寸。此前,中国股市连续两天大幅下跌,周二出现五年来最大单日跌幅。 金价反弹之际,地缘政治紧张局势再起,美国前总统特朗普对中国的贸易言论略有软化,这些因素重振了对传统避险货币的需求。特朗普政府宣布对俄罗斯石油巨头卢克石油公司和俄罗斯石油公司实施新的制裁,以应对莫斯科在乌克兰的战争,这增强了黄金的吸引力。

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