加拿大央行降息决议后,美元兑加元小幅走高

在加拿大央行决定降低利率之后,加拿大股市和债市周三大幅上涨。这是七国集团(G7)中首次降息,为加拿大经济注入了乐观情绪。值得注意的是,在此之后,加元兑美元汇率跌至近两周来的低点。

USDCAD - 4-Hour Chart

多伦多证券交易所S&P/TSX综合指数上涨166.84点(0.8%),至22145.02点,收复了本周早些时候的大部分失地。

加拿大央行将基准利率下调25个基点至4.75%,这是四年来首次降息,以减轻高负债消费者的压力。

密苏里州圣路易斯Edward Jones的高级投资策略师Angelo Kourkafas强调了此次降息对股市和债市的积极影响。他强调,加拿大央行愿意开始政策正常化,同时保持经济增长,符合软着陆的设想。

加拿大服务业经济在5月份实现了一年来的首次增长。标准普尔全球数据显示,新业务增加,招聘速度加快。

随着大宗商品价格上涨,多伦多市场的所有主要板块,包括对利率敏感的房地产和资源股板块,都出现了上涨。

华尔街也出现了反弹,主要是受科技股的推动。

反映市场对加拿大央行进一步降息的预期,加拿大2年期国债收益率下跌12.7个基点,至3.929%,为2月1日以来的最低水平。

掉期市场数据预计,加拿大央行今年将降息77个基点,而美联储预计将降息49个基点。

加拿大和美国利率分化的前景令加元承压,加元兑美元汇率下跌0.1%,至1.3690(或73.05美分)。在此之前,加元触及1.3741的盘中低点,这是自5月23日以来的最低水平。

分析师预计,在美联储9月18日的会议之前,加拿大央行可能至少再降息一次,这加大了利差扩大和加元汇率脆弱性的可能性。

美联储即将召开的政策会议定于6月11日至12日(市场普遍预计利率将保持不变)和7月底,随后是9月17日至18日的会议。

根据路透调查,多数预测人士预计美联储将在9月下调基准利率,并在今年晚些时候再次降息。

路透社的一项调查显示,由于加拿大央行先于美联储降息,以及11月美国大选对全球贸易不确定性的潜在影响,预计未来一年加元的升值幅度将比此前预期的要温和。

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