美元指数面临重要低点

美国大选大戏——民意调查的波动可能会影响美元未来的价格。

DXY - Daily Chart

DXY-日线图

DXY美元的价格已经从100.61反弹,该价格在2024年保持了市场反弹。美元将不得不守住这一水平,否则将面临进一步回调的风险。

随着民调显示卡玛拉·哈里斯在总统竞选中的差距缩小,市场可能会出现一些混乱。

在整体投票中,哈里斯据称以48%对43%领先于特朗普,误差为3.1%。

人们对前总统特朗普将在11月重新入主白宫的预期越来越高,这导致了所谓的“特朗普交易”,人们相信他的政策将提振企业利润,缓解美国的债务螺旋。

然而,由于投资者不确定外交和国内政策将会是什么样子,一些混乱正在悄悄进入市场。

股票投资者一直在转向可能受益于特朗普减税和放松监管等政策的美国股市角落,包括小盘股和能源股。这一想法也帮助推动了大型科技股转向其他领域。

前景中的一个问题是债券市场,投资者因担心支出而撤出长期债券。英国商业银行Close Brothers估计,特朗普的第二个任期可能会在10年内创造4至5万亿美元的额外政府借款,这可能会推高通胀并损害债券价格。

但民主政府不太可能在支出方面表现得更好,这可能是美元可能寻求反弹的原因。

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