美联储利率前景令金价承压,黄金跌至4000美元关口

周二亚洲早盘交易中,黄金价格跌至每盎司4000美元附近,现货黄金(XAU/USD)交易价格接近4015美元,原因是通胀担忧加剧了市场对美国利率可能长期维持高位的预期。

XAUUSD_2026-06-30_10-20-21

XAU/USD – 5日图表

市场概览

此前,黄金价格难以守住4000美元这一重要的心理关口,此次下跌延续了近期的疲软态势。金价下跌反映了市场对利率前景的担忧加剧、美元走势不明朗以及避险需求下降,交易员正密切关注多哈可能举行的美伊会谈。

金价通常会受益于通胀和地缘政治紧张局势,但更高的利率会增加持有这种无收益金属的机会成本。

政策背景

美联储于6月17日将利率维持在3.5%至3.75%的区间,同时政策制定者暗示今年降息意愿不高。 《巴伦周刊》报道称,九位官员预测年底前基准利率将上调,而八位官员则预计利率将保持不变。

这一转变持续给黄金带来实际收益率压力。交易员们目前正密切关注美国劳动力市场数据,包括周三公布的ADP就业数据和周四公布的非农就业数据,以寻找美联储可能需要维持紧缩政策的迹象。

中东局势

尽管地缘政治风险依然高企,黄金价格依然下跌。美国总统特朗普表示,在霍尔木兹海峡周末发生冲突后,伊朗已同意在多哈举行会谈,而德黑兰方面则否认了直接谈判的可能性。

展望

交易员们接下来将关注美国就业数据、美联储的评论以及美伊关系缓和的可信度。强劲的就业报告可能会提振加息预期,并进一步打压黄金价格;而疲软的数据或海湾地区局势再度紧张则可能刺激避险需求。

关于作者

 

Martin Lam 是 ATFX 亚太区首席分析师,在全球外汇及投资市场拥有逾 20 年的经验。他毕业于迪肯大学(Deakin University),主修金融与经济学,并曾在多家领先的外汇经纪公司担任高级管理职位。

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