差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美聯儲利率前景令金價承壓,黃金跌至 4000 美元關口

週二亞洲早盤交易中,黃金價格跌至每盎司 4000 美元附近,現貨黃金(XAU/USD)交易價格接近 4015 美元,原因是通脹擔憂加劇了市場對美國利率可能長期維持高位的預期。

XAUUSD_2026-06-30_10-20-21

XAU/USD – 5 日圖表

市場概覽

此前,黃金價格難以守住 4000 美元這一重要心理關口,此次下跌延續了近期疲軟態勢。金價走弱反映市場對利率前景的擔憂加劇、美元走勢不明朗,以及避險需求下降,交易員正密切關注多哈可能舉行的美伊會談。

黃金通常受益於通脹與地緣政治緊張局勢,但更高的利率會提高持有這種無收益資產的機會成本。

政策背景

美聯儲於 6 月 17 日將利率維持在 3.5% 至 3.75% 的區間,同時政策制定者暗示今年降息意願不高。《巴倫周刊》報導稱,九位官員預測年底前基準利率將上調,而八位官員則預計利率將保持不變。

這一轉變持續給黃金帶來實際收益率壓力。交易員目前正密切關注美國勞動力市場數據,包括週三公布的 ADP 就業數據以及週四公布的非農就業數據,以尋找美聯儲可能需要維持緊縮政策的跡象。

中東局勢

儘管地緣政治風險依然高企,黃金價格依然下跌。美國總統特朗普表示,在霍爾木茲海峽週末發生衝突後,伊朗已同意在多哈舉行會談,而德黑蘭方面則否認存在直接談判的可能性。

展望

交易員接下來將關注美國就業數據、美聯儲的評論以及美伊關係緩和的可信度。強勁的就業報告可能提振加息預期並進一步打壓黃金價格,而疲弱數據或海灣地區局勢再度緊張則可能刺激避險需求。

關於作者

 

Martin Lam 是 ATFX 亞太區首席分析師,在全球外匯及投資市場擁有逾 20 年的經驗。他畢業於迪肯大學(Deakin University),主修金融與經濟學,並曾在多家領先的外匯經紀公司擔任高級管理職位。

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