美国大选引发避险,金价创历史新高

周二,在几个关键因素的推动下,金价飙升至历史高点。黄金作为避险资产的需求增加,围绕美国大选和中东持续冲突的地缘政治不确定性,以及进一步货币宽松的预期,都促成了金价的飙升。

主要价格变动

gold price chart

  • 现货黄金:截至美国东部时间下午12:25,现货黄金上涨0.7%,达到每盎司2,739.81美元。盘中早些时候,金价达到创纪录的2,744.08美元
  • 美国黄金期货:上涨0.6%,至2754.30美元

今年至今表现

黄金价格今年大幅上涨,涨幅超过32%,多次打破纪录。较低的利率提高了黄金作为对冲经济和政治不稳定的吸引力,使其成为一种有吸引力的投资选择。

地缘政治的影响

Zaner Metals副总裁兼高级金属策略师Peter A. Grant强调,地缘政治紧张局势是金价飙升背后的主要推动力。距离美国大选只有两周的时间,候选人之间的竞争激烈,政治不确定性正在提振对黄金的避险需求。

“当然,如果中东局势进一步升温,我们可能会在年底前看到3000美元,”格兰特指出,并补充说他更倾向于第一季度出现这样的飙升。他还指出,主要央行正在实施的货币宽松政策正在推动股市上涨。

选举影响

最近的路透社/益普索民意调查显示,民主党副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯略微领先于前总统唐纳德·特朗普(46%对43%)。法国巴黎银行分析师强调,候选人之间的差距缩小造成了支撑金价的不确定性。

技术分析

从技术角度来看,黄金的相对强弱指数(RSI)位于74,表明价格目前处于“超买”区域。

白银和其他贵金属

  • 现货银上涨2.8%,达到每盎司34.72美元,盘中早些时候触及2012年末以来的最高价格。
  • 市场预测:Exinity Group首席市场分析师Han Tan预计,如果贵金属的有利条件持续下去,在11月5日投票日之前,银价可能会超过35美元。
  • 铂金和钯金:这两种金属也出现了正增长。
    • 铂金上涨约2.6%,至每盎司1,029.10美元
    • 钯价上涨2.2%,至1,074.38美元

总之,地缘政治紧张局势和经济因素的结合继续推动投资者对黄金和其他贵金属的浓厚兴趣,因为投资者在不确定性中寻求稳定。

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