日本央行干预臆测导致美元兑日元暴大跌

由于投资者猜测日本央行可能进行干预,美元兑日元汇率周四出现大跌。

USDJPY – Daily Chart

美元兑日元跌至之前的阻力位158.40,之后出现小幅反弹。这个水平现在是一个临界点,有可能出现更大幅度的回调,低至152。美元兑日元汇率的未来是不确定的,需要谨慎和战略规划。

美国通胀逊于预期,导致投资者押注于利率的早期变动。目前,市场对美联储9月份降息的预期从70%提高到了85%。这种可能的降息凸显了积极决策的必要性。

由于波动幅度之大,投资者也怀疑日本央行会干预汇市,日本央行外汇官员Masato Kanda拒绝排除这种可能性。神田曾表示,近期日圆走势受投机主导,损害了家庭支出。当被问及日本央行是否会进行干预时,他表示,如果情况属实,将在月底公布。

日本央行上一次出手干预是在5月份,分析人士表示,160美元是日本央行的底线。

“毫无疑问,日本财务省进行了干预,”三菱UFJ首席汇市策略师Daisaku Ueno表示,并指出160日元兑1美元是”最后防线”。

今天的暴跌是在汇价跌至近162之后发生的。

由于投资者对美联储将在9月和12月下调基准利率的预期增强,美元兑日元汇率可能再次走低。

在连续两次在160的水平上进行干预后买入该货币对也是不明智的。由于美国或日本未来没有重要数据,这将是获利了结和新空头可能出现的另一个原因。

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