英镑兑澳元汇率接近关键支撑位

英镑兑澳元汇率自8月份的高点继续走弱,正在测试一些关键支撑位。

英镑兑澳元——日线图

英镑兑澳元已经突破2.0480,而2.0300是一个关键的障碍。在1.9750之前,跌破该水平几乎没有支撑。

英国和澳大利亚的经济都有自己的问题,但最近英国经济的低迷给了澳元力量。上周有消息称,英国经济在上一季度实现了零增长,这是令英国政府头疼的另一个问题。

根据英国国家统计局的数据,英国经济在6月份反弹0.4%后,7月份陷入停滞。来自英国的进一步数据显示,7月份工业和制造业生产双双下降0.9%和1.3%。这两个数据都低于分析师的预期。

英国财政大臣瑞秋•里夫斯表示,英国经济“没有崩溃,但确实感觉被卡住了”。

ICAEW的Suren Thiru表示,“ 7月的经济放缓可能是经济进入更为温和时期的开始,通胀上升和失业人数增加可能抑制了8月的经济活动,尽管温暖的天气预计会提振经济。”

澳元从英国的困境中受益,但澳大利亚经济数据仍然疲弱。

由于对经济的担忧打击了消费者,澳大利亚9月份的消费者信心指数从3年高点回落。西太平洋银行-墨尔本研究所的一项调查显示,消费者信心指数下降3.1%,至95.4,而8月份的降幅为5.7%,达到2022年初以来的最高水平。

西太平洋银行的Matthew Hassan表示:“对澳大利亚消费者来说,彻底的乐观情绪仍难以捉摸。”“生活成本危机可能已经基本结束,宽松的政策带来了一些提振,但显然对未来的道路仍存在一些不安。”

澳大利亚储备银行和英国央行目前已经完成了各自的利率周期。由于目前的看跌情绪,澳元占了上风,如果没有买入支撑出现,交易员可以关注汇价继续走低。

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