数据公布前,欧元兑日元回到干预水平附近

在欧洲数据公布前,欧元兑日元汇率再次回到之前的干预水平。

EURJPY – Daily Chart

欧元兑日元-日图

欧元兑日元交易于168.62,这是日本央行第二次干预的位置,投资者应该对欧元多头保持警惕。

日本经济数据将于周二公布,PPI数据将于香港时间上午7:50公布。随后将于香港时间下午2点公布德国通胀数据,届时分析师预计德国物价水平将与上月持平。

任何重大变动都可能来自日本PPI水平的上升,这增加了日本央行加息的可能性。

然而,任何日元抛售都是有风险的,因为对外汇市场的另一次干预可能是不可避免的。日本央行官员上周再次对日元走软发表了强硬言论,但抛售仍在继续。在日本央行干预货币市场后,日元在4月底和5月的第一天再次飙升。

日本央行行长植田和男上周表示,如果通胀超过央行的预期,将考虑提前调整利率。他在与读卖国际经济恳谈话会的一次活动上发表了讲话。其承认,通胀上升可能会促使货币政策发生变化。

上田说,如果价格预期被大幅上调,或者潜在的通胀风险增加,日本央行将考虑对利率进行适当的早期调整。

日本央行3月份决定终止包括负利率在内的非常规宽松措施,标志着其政策方针因经济形势变化而发生转变。上田表示,尽管核心通胀似乎正朝着央行2%的目标迈进,但利率走势仍存在不确定性。

上田裕和再次指出,日本央行对日元贬值对核心通胀的影响保持警惕,表明准备在必要时通过货币政策措施进行干预。他承认,目前汇率波动对物价的影响比以往任何时期都更为明显。

其他日本央行官员强调,日元走软会给企业带来压力,不会被容忍。

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