美国ISM数据疲软,带动欧元兑美元汇率上涨

弱于预期的美国ISM制造业数据带动欧元兑美元汇率上涨。

EURUSD – Daily Chart

欧元美元-日图

欧元兑美元汇率从1.0840升至1.0877,而强劲阻力位在1.0850。

5月份,美国制造业商业活动加速放缓,ISM制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)从4月份的49.2降至48.7。这低于49.6的市场预期。

PMI调查中的就业指数从4月份的48.6升至5月份的51.1,而新订单指数也从49.1降至45.4。制造业的疲软将进一步加大美联储降息的压力。

美国制造业活动在3月份增长后继续收缩,这是该行业自2022年9月以来的首次扩张。需求再次走软,产出稳定,投入保持宽松,”美国供应管理协会(ISM)制造业业务调查委员会主席Timothy Fiore表示。

在此之前,美国商务部公布的个人消费支出(PCE)报告也低于预期,显示3月至4月的增幅为0.2%,低于上月的0.3%。这是今年最慢的一次增长,如果美联储想要帮助经济,这将给他们一些放松利率的空间。本周的重要数据将是周五的非农就业数据。

明日下午3时55分,香港电讯亦会带来德国经济的就业数据,包括失业变动及失业率。该数据预计将接近上月新增失业人数1万人。

这将导致周三公布的美国服务业PMI数据,预计将从49.4升至50.5。欧洲央行周四将召开利率会议,预计将首次降息。接下来的新闻发布会可能会解释未来的降息步伐,并决定欧元兑美元在1.0850阻力位附近的走势。

最近的新闻
由于鲍威尔中性基调削弱美元,欧元兑美元反弹

欧元兑美元周二攀升至1.16上方,受助于美联储主席鲍威尔的谨慎政策立场,以及法国政治紧张局势暂时缓和,此前法国政府暂停了备受争议的养老金改革。 鲍威尔在一个经济论坛上发表讲话,重申了“逐次会议”的利率决策方式,并表示劳动力市场的风险现在比通胀担忧更重要。虽然他指出,经济仍比预期强劲,但他承认就业方面的脆弱性日益增加,这增强了人们对进一步放松货币政策的预期。

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