中国股市反弹批评者可能会错失涨幅

我们注意到中国 50 指数和大盘近期的反弹,但有趣的是,西方新闻媒体对此表示怀疑。这实际上是从超卖水平反弹,可能会继续走高。

CHINA 50 - Weekly Chart

中国 50 – 周线图

即使从周线图的视觉角度来看,我们也可以看到,自 2022 年以来,前 50 只中国股票的指数曾三次以 11,000 点左右的水平为基准。市场还没有接近 2021 年 20,000 点以上的高点。

来自美国媒体 CNBC 的一篇文章称,最近的反弹“让人想起了 2015 年的泡沫”。福布斯的另一篇文章说,“中国股市 30% 的反弹存在经济问题”。

这些类型的文章没有注意到,美国股市一直在以人工智能收益的承诺为依据反弹至历史高点,但这一承诺尚未实现。

一个简单的例子就是阿里巴巴股票,其目前的市销率为 1.86 倍。这仍然比 5 年平均值 3.79 倍低 51%。该公司的美国同行亚马逊的市销率为 3.08 倍,两家公司都对人工智能感兴趣。

中国经济复苏令人失望,导致外国对国内企业的投资放缓,但西方投资者可能会错过未来的收益。

彭博社报道称,景顺表示“一些股票确实被高估了”。其他投资银行敦促谨慎行事,但会很乐意在近期估值最高时出售美国股票。

彭博社情报的吉娜·亚当斯表示:“这些大手笔的举措是否会拯救该国深陷困境的房地产行业并缓解消费者的萎靡不振还不确定。”“中国本周晚些时候的举措尚未提升新兴市场 2024 年或 2025 年的整体盈利前景,分析师和投资者正在评估其影响”。

中国最近的举措是基于政府终于划清界限并承诺采取刺激措施。随着海外投资者关注最近的经济问题,股市可以恢复到更健康的估值水平,远离泡沫。

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