GDP数据公布前,美股仍处于调整状态

在周四GDP数据公布之前,美国股指周三继续下跌。

SP500 – Weekly Chart

标准普尔500指数-周图

标准普尔500指数将测试自6月中旬以来一直发挥作用的上行通道阻力位。这将是防止进一步回调至5330点或5194点水平的重要屏障。

周二晚些时候,特斯拉和Alphabet发布了令人失望的财报,导致股市走低。两家公司在最近的报告中都对利润率敲响了警钟。在一个充满挑战和放缓的市场中,特斯拉的降价和激励策略导致第二季度汽车毛利率为14.6%,低于分析师预期的16.29%。

投资者可能会赶在微软、Meta、苹果、亚马逊和英伟达等其他重要科技公司下周公布业绩之前获利了结。

高盛分析师在一份报告中表示:“在特斯拉能够开始生产新的低成本车型(该公司预计在2025年上半年开始生产)之前,我们认为定价/激励措施可能仍然是一个关键的需求杠杆,并对利润率构成压力。”

Alphabet表示,随着公司测试新产品,今年基于人工智能的支出将增加,这也引发了对利润率的担忧。

市场目前正期待周四的GDP报告和周五的个人消费支出平减指数报告,以了解通胀何时可能降至足以让美联储降息的水平。个人消费支出指数是美联储青睐的通胀指标,分析师预计该指数同比增幅将从2.6%降至2.4%。预计第二季度的GDP数据将从1.4%上升至2%。

市场认为,在7月30日至31日的联邦公开市场委员会会议上降息25个基点至7%的可能性不大,但在9月17日至18日的会议上降息的可能性为100%。

本周的数据对于支持这些预期是必要的,而GDP和通胀的上升将在下周重大财报发布之前加剧股市的回调。

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