美元兑日元汇率在通胀数据公布前获得支撑

周五之前,美元兑日元汇率聚焦日本最新通胀数据。

USDJPY – Daily Chart

美元兑日元-日图

美元兑日元周四在155.78找到了支撑,这在接下来将是至关重要的。

日本一年前的通胀数据为3.3%,但今年1月下滑至2.2%。然而,5月份的数据已经攀升至2.8%。如果6月数据进一步走高,可能会推低美元兑日元。

影响汇率的另一个因素是日本央行最近的干预。日本央行已经表明,对汇价的底线在160附近。由于担心大幅下跌,任何向这一水平的上涨都不太可能出现来自机构的强劲买盘。

在失业率数据上升后,美元周四走弱。美联储官员古尔斯比的鸽派言论也打压了美元。他说,央行即将降息。他警告说,如果官员们把货币政策的变化拖得太久,就有可能出现经济衰退。

他没有给出可能降息的确切时间表,但当被问及美联储现在是否有降息的基础时,他说,“现在的条件合适吗?是的,这就是通往2%的路径。”

他在谈到通货膨胀时说:“这还没有结束,但当你们两个连续几个月看到这种情况时,我感觉好多了。”

日本经济已经摆脱了长期的通货紧缩期,日本央行的言论可能暗示其货币政策将发生变化。中央银行表示,经济在工资上涨和2%的通货膨胀率方面取得了进展。

日本央行表示:“许多地区报告称,大企业在今年薪资谈判中的大幅加薪,正蔓延至中小企业。”

最新的评估与4月份的上次会议形成了对比,当时日本央行表示,有“希望的迹象”表明,大公司的工资稳步增长将蔓延到较小的公司。

周五更高的通胀数据可能会令投资者抛售美元兑日元。

最近的新闻
黄金反弹至4100美元上方,因投资者在美国CPI公布前调整仓位

周四金价回升至4100美元上方,XAUUSD现货黄金报4145美元,上涨1.1%,因投资者在周五关键的美国通胀报告出炉前重新调整头寸。此前,中国股市连续两天大幅下跌,周二出现五年来最大单日跌幅。 金价反弹之际,地缘政治紧张局势再起,美国前总统特朗普对中国的贸易言论略有软化,这些因素重振了对传统避险货币的需求。特朗普政府宣布对俄罗斯石油巨头卢克石油公司和俄罗斯石油公司实施新的制裁,以应对莫斯科在乌克兰的战争,这增强了黄金的吸引力。

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