A new round of the epidemic has resumed. As new cases in Europe and the United States rebounded, new variants of the virus were raging. Countries such as Europe and the United States have strengthened border entry restrictions to discourage investors' willingness and believe that it will affect consumers' consumption desire. The global stock market fell last Friday, with strong volatility in the forex market and gold markets, international oil prices fell sharply. The US dollar index fell sharply from the 97 levels to the 96.
Black Friday consumer frustration
The market is most concerned about "Black Friday", the big day of the traditional consumer peak season for Thanksgiving in the United States. The respondents said that the increase in prices caused by inflation has reduced shopping desires and reduced consumer spending, which directly affects the amount of business in stores and department stores. This means It is difficult for the US consumer market to return to its pre-epidemic level.
This week European and American countries will announce a number of important economic data. Before the announcement of two important non-agricultural employment data in the United States in November, the market paid more attention to the attendance of US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hearing on Tuesday night. Powell was the first to attend the hearing after he was re-elected. At that time, he will pay attention to Powell's views on the future economic and inflation issues, and more importantly, the views of monetary policy.
Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced an interest rate hike of 0.25%. But the President of the Reserve Bank of New York stated at the press conference that if the local economy slows down in the future, the Reserve Bank will again decide to tighten monetary policy. After the remarks were made, the New Zealand dollar fell against the U.S. dollar, hitting the biggest weekly decline in three months, falling to a three-month low of 0.6810. Technically, the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar is approaching the highest level of 0.6795 in September. If it falls below this level, it means that it has the opportunity to enter the 38.2% area of the adjustment range from March last year to February this year. It will test 0.6703, which is an important short-term resistance level. Will pay attention to 0.6860 and 0.6900, but it depends on the November business confidence index released by New Zealand tomorrow and a series of data sheets in the United States, and more importantly, how the Fed Chairman Powell’s policy stance guides the US dollar.