The EURUSD exchange rate has economic data ahead on Friday, with German retail sales being the highlight.
EURUSD – Daily Chart
The EURUSD has bounced from a recent test of support, aligning with its April high. The path to 1.1800 has been rejected a few times, but could be the target if the data supports.
German retail sales at 2 pm is the key data release for the euro on Friday, and analysts are looking for a 2.6% reading after a 4.9% increase in the previous month.
There is data following all afternoon for various countries, but some of it is light and may not push the price around. French inflation at 2:45 pm, and Spanish inflation at 3:00 pm, will lead into the German employment numbers at 3:55 pm. There are some other numbers due by 5 pm, but traders would be looking further ahead to the 8 pm release of German CPI inflation.
The euro gains are being helped by U.S. Dollar selling after dovish remarks on interest rates from New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams. Williams said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday that “every meeting is, from my perspective, live” for a potential rate cut.
“Risks are more in balance,” he said. “We are going just to have to see how the data play out”.
Among the upcoming data releases ahead of the Fed’s September 16-17 policy meeting is the PCE price index on Friday, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, and the monthly payrolls report a week later. Traders are currently betting on an 84% chance of a quarter-point rate cut next month, and have priced in a cumulative 56 basis points of easing by year-end. Those expectations sent the two-year Treasury yields to policy expectations, sliding to the lowest since May 1 overnight, adding to pressure on the dollar.
The dollar had also been under pressure after President Trump’s decision to fire a Federal Reserve policymaker.
