(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Key TakeawaysU.S. Q2 GDP slowed to 1.5%, below expectations; June PCE Price Index fell MoM for the first time in six years. Softer rate‑hike expectations fueled a sharp rally in U.S. equities, gold rebounded above $4,100, while the dollar weakened and oil retreated on U.S.–Iran tensions. Today’s focus: BoJ rate decision, expected to keep rates unchanged but likely to signal determination to continue tightening amid yen weakness and Middle East‑driven price pressures. Inflation risks remain above target. Markets will also watch BoJ’s stance on yen exchange rates. Eurozone CPI is also due, with July YoY expected to rebound slightly to 2.9%. A stronger‑than‑expected print would raise the probability of an ECB hike in September. |
Global Market Review 31/07/2026
- U.S. equities surged Thursday, led by tech. Chip stocks rebounded strongly; Microsoft soared over 15%, its biggest one‑day gain in 18 years. Dow +1.19%, S&P 500 +1.67%, Nasdaq +2.78%.
- U.S. long‑term yields jumped to 19‑year highs, while the dollar fell on weaker economic and inflation data.
- Gold +0.92% above $4,100, supported by a softer dollar and easing inflation.
- Oil closed lower after choppy trade, as traders assessed Saudi‑led plans for a maritime coalition to bolster Red Sea defences.
Key Events Today:
- 09:30 AU PPI Q2 **
- 09:30 CN NBS Manufacturing & Non Manufacturing PMI JUL **
- 11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision ***
- 14:30 BOJ Press Conference ***
- 17:00 EU CPI Flash JUL ***
- 20:30 CA GDP MAY **
- 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final JUL ***
Key Data and Events Coming Week
- Monday: AU/JP//CN/US/EU/GB Manufacturing PMI Final, US ISM Manufacturing PMI & Construction Spending
- Tuesday: US Balance of Trade & Factory Orders
- Wednesday: API/EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, AU/JP/CN/US/EU/GB Services & Composite PMI. EU PPI, US ADP Employment Change & ISM Services PMI
- Thursday: US Initial Jobless Claims, EU Retail Sales
- Friday: GERMANY Industrial Production, US Non-Farm Payrolls, CA Unemployment Rate
Markets Analysis 31/07/2026
- Resistance: 1.1548 / 1.1563
- Support: 1.1483 / 1.1464
Eurozone Q2 GDP +0.4%, above expectations. Combined with dollar weakness, EUR/USD rose for a second day, hitting highs since June 17 above 1.1500.
Analyst View: Breakout shifts target above 1.1550, but watch key resistance near 1.1600. Eurozone CPI will guide ECB expectations.
Bias: Mild rebound
- Resistance: 1.3510 / 1.3558
- Support: 1.3399 / 1.3349
BoE held rates Thursday, awaiting clarity on the inflation impact of the U.S.–Iran conflict. GBP/USD rose for a second day, +1.3% cumulative, to highs since July 20.
Analyst View: Holding above MAs, short‑term upside expanding. If above 1.3450, target shifts above 1.3500.
Bias: Mildly bullish
- Resistance: 161.69 / 162.39
- Support: 160.27 / 159.40
USD/JPY plunged 2.6% Thursday to lows since May 14, amid reports of Japanese intervention. Focus now on BoJ decision and official stance.
Analyst View: Attempting recovery above 160 Friday. BoJ’s inflation and FX outlook will determine whether decline stabilises.
Bias: Wait-and-see
- Resistance: 87.31 / 90.49
- Support: 80.32 / 77.19
Oil fell Thursday as reports of Oman–Iran talks on the Strait of Hormuz eased tensions.
Analyst View: Failed to break three‑day highs, retreating. Likely to hover between the 10- and 20-day MAs until headlines drive a breakout.
Bias: Range trading
- Resistance: 4117 / 4142
- Support: 4038 / 4014
- Resistance: 59.74 / 60.34
- Support: 57.83 / 57.24
Gold closed above $4,100 Thursday as weaker GDP and softer inflation reduced Fed hike bets.
Analyst View: Needs to hold above $4,100 to sustain momentum. Watch resistance at $4,120–4,166 (recent highs).
Bias: Mildly bullish
- Resistance: 52,823 / 53,061
- Support: 51,830 / 51,600
U.S. equities rallied Thursday, supported by tech gains and softer PCE inflation. Dow rebounded over 1% after the prior day’s plunge.
Analyst View: Trading around the major daily moving averages (above 52,000). Breakout could extend rebound toward 52,823/53,061.
Bias: Short‑term bullish
- Resistance: 28,870 / 29,194
- Support: 28,100 / 27,842
Chip stocks rebounded; Microsoft surged 15% (largest gain in 18 years), easing AI spending concerns. Amazon rose after earnings; Apple slipped.
Analyst View: Nasdaq surged Thursday. Watch 10‑day MA near 28,300 as resistance. A breakout would lift toward the 20‑day MA near 28,800.
Bias: Short‑term bullish
- Resistance: 65,872 / 66,937
- Support: 63,431 / 62,349
Bitcoin rose Thursday, joining the risk‑asset rally as the AI trade revived on Microsoft earnings—gains capped by the Fed’s hawkish tone, U.S. strikes on Iran, and Strategy’s quarterly results.
Analyst View: Extended rally, hit four‑day highs before retreating to MA range. If below MAs, risk of pullback under $64k; breakout could target $66k.
Bias: Weak rebound
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