差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

通脹未如期見頂,即將出爐的美聯儲加息政策會更激進嗎?

隨著5月通脹水準的揭曉,市場陷入對經濟衰退的擔憂,美國5月CPI年率錄得8.6%,創1981年12月以來新高,高於預期值和前值0.3個百分點。 沒有絲毫退燒跡象的通脹數據,重新推升了市場對美聯儲在本周的議息會議上更加激進加息的預期。

目前外界普遍預計美聯儲將把聯邦基金目標利率區間上調50個基點,但是上週五的通脹報告出爐後市場上開始討論加息75個基點的可能性並且可能會以更加激進的步伐加息。 此外,市場關注的焦點在於鮑威爾在新聞發佈會上的發言,由於上個月鮑威爾明確表示沒有積極考慮加息75個基點,但是通脹仍在飆升的局面出現可能令他的觀點有所調整。

由於美國的通脹沒有如市場早前預期的那樣見頂回落,而是繼續上行,這也令市場但是美聯儲會實行較為長期的緊縮政策,持續的加息可能會令經濟陷入衰退的困境。 此次令通脹持續上行的主要原因在於能源價格的持續上行,由於夏季出行高峰將至能源價格可能還會進一步上升,這也加劇了美聯儲對通脹預期的失控的擔憂。

隨著俄羅斯方面的原油供應減少,高盛最近報告預測,國際油價短期有望達到140美元的水準。 這對於美國的通脹無疑是雪上加霜,所以已經有市場機構預測通脹可能最早在下個月推升到接近9%的水準,並且將可能持續一段時間高位,美聯儲也可能會在接下來的幾次議息會議中拿出更加激進緊縮措施進行應對。

受到經濟衰退的擔憂和通脹升溫的影響,標普500指數在周一進入熊市,尤其是一些高估值的科技股遭到大量拋售,如果美聯儲開始更加激進的加息,未來股市的前景不容樂觀,短時間很難出現反彈的跡象。 此外,市場擔心美聯儲將不得不大幅收緊政策以控制通脹,全球債市大跌,10年期國債收益率升至2011年以來最高水準,各期限美債收益率均有較大上行幅度,這也預示著美國經濟下行的風險升溫,以及股市下行風險加劇。

與此同時,美元迎來了一波利好的憧憬,尤其是鮑威爾的講話如果暗示之後會有可能進一步提升加息步伐的話,將有利於美元後市在升息預期中維持上行。 目前美元兌一籃子貨幣觸及近

20年來高,進一步加劇了市場對於本次決議中激進加息的預期,也令美元成為了當前的避險資產。

相反, 其他非美貨幣和大宗商品價格,如黃金的走勢或會進一步承壓,若未來採取更加激進的加息政策,會進一步降低黃金對投資者的吸引力,由於國債收益率隨著加息升高,持有黃金的機會成本上升。 因此,投資者需要密切留意此次會議中釋放的關於加息步伐的態度,以便及時調整資產投資部署。

本次發佈的點陣圖和最新經濟通脹預測會相應透露今年餘下時間的加息步伐和美聯儲整體立場,包括是否如市場預期的9月份也需要加息50個基點之多,會重點影響股市當前的恐慌拋售會否持續。 但如果美聯儲本次加息50個基點,且對於後續加息態度持觀望,那麼近期市場行情將可能迎來調整。

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