差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

美國3月通脹飆至40年峰值,對零售銷售影響有多大?

美國勞工部本周公布了3月消費者物價指數(CPI),較去年同期增8.5%,漲幅為1981年12月以來之首,再次刷新高位。今晚,市場關注的另一個數據美國3月零售銷售月率也將公佈,本月的環比預測值為上升0.6%。市場普遍擔憂如此高的通脹水平之下將沉重打擊消費者的信心,令其減少消費支出,從而加速經濟的衰退。

 

回顧上一個月的零售銷售額已經有放緩的跡象,美國2月零售銷售額環比上升0.3%,預期0.4%,前值修正值為4.9%,2月該數據也表明通脹的增長限制了購買力。那麼,在這個月情況會不會更加糟糕?

 

2月的零售銷售數據或許釋放出一個信號,美國購買商品的人數在減少,而他們是美國經濟增長與復甦的動力所在。但是,本月通脹水平繼續飆升至40年新高,對購買力形成新一輪的壓力,尤其是受利率上升影響較大的房地產行業,高房價加上高利率讓許多美國人只能暫時望而卻步。

 

說到通脹對消費者支出的限制,我們還要關心一個關鍵變量就是美國居民的工資增長率。據美國政府數據顯示,美國3月份新增就業人數43.1萬人,雖保持強勁但增幅不及市場預期,失業率進一步下降,從3.8%降至3.6%。不過,美國3月份實際薪資呈現下滑局面,平均週薪較去年同期下降14.25美元或3.6%,較上月下降1.1%,至381.59美元。可以看出,目前美國居民工資的增長遠遠無法跟上物價的增長水平,這也成為了消費者購買力的限制因素之一。

 

us non-farm-payrolls

(來源:TRADINGECONOMICS)

 

同時,供應鏈緊張問題還在加劇,進一步推升物價,供應端復甦難以跟上需求復甦的速度。在3月份,能源價格同比上漲11%,創2005年以來最大同比漲幅;汽油價格同比上漲18.3%,為2009年以來的最大同比漲幅。除了能源和貴金屬價格上升之外,3月食品價格大漲8.8%,漲幅達40年來最大,而俄烏戰爭加劇了糧食供應的短缺,未來食品價格還有可能繼續攀升。

 

由於2月零售銷售的增長已經不及市場預期,如果本月再不及市場預期,就說明現時的通脹水平已經對消費者支出產生一定的抑製作用。加之,上月的美國密歇根大學3月消費者信心指數也不及市場預期,終值為59.4,然而本月消費者信心指數的市場預計值為59,較上月終值更低,這也反映出消費者情緒的低迷。

 

值得注意的是,伴隨今晚3月零售銷售月率發布的還有美國4月密歇根大學消費者信心指數初值,相信這兩組數據會較為全面和直觀的反映本月進一步攀升的通脹是否影響消費者的購買意欲。

 

鑑於通脹的大幅攀升,美聯儲很可能在接下來的會議中採取更加激進的加息措施,防止高昂的物價持續侵蝕國內的購買力,從而令美國經濟陷入衰退的風險。市場目前已經開始消化對加息的押注,疊加各大公司正在努力控製成本對Q1財報季造成的影響,預計短期內美股大幅走高的可能性不大。

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