差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

股市至暗難減ETF市場熱度,今年下半年哪些ETF板塊前景佳?

在今年上半年,由於受到升息擔憂、通脹困擾以及俄烏戰爭等多重因素的影響,美股遇52年最差表現,低迷的股市讓更多的投資者開始關注美股ETF,一方面希望令資產配置更加多元化,另一方面希望選擇一些抗通脹、更穩健和流動性高的資產對沖風險。

更加利好的消息是,6月28日,中國證監會和中國香港證監會發佈公告,決定批准兩地交易所正式將符合條件的ETF納入內地與香港股票市場交易互聯互通機制。 互聯互通下的ETF交易將於2022年7月4日開始。 這意味著所有香港及海外投資者,包括機構及個人投資者,均可買賣滬股通下的合資格上交所上市ETF ,以及深股通下的合資格深交所上市ETF。

儘管美股經歷了半年多的下行頹勢,但是資本對於ETF的熱度沒有冷卻,尤其是反向ETF的投資者更是收穫了豐厚的回報。 根據英國研究機構ETFGI統計資料顯示,5月資金投入ETF強勁,凈流入達802.8億美元,累計至5月底凈流入達4178.7億美元,為歷史第二高,僅次於去年同期的5723.6億美元。 其中,香港ETF市場今年的平均每日成交金額進一步增加至約11億美元,達到歷史新高。

可以看出投資者今年對於ETF市場的熱情是有增無減。 但是今年上半年和下半年ETF資產的選擇可能需要做出一些相應的調整。 由於俄烏之間爆發戰爭、能源供應短缺等問題持續推升能源價格,令做多能源類ETF的投資者成為今年上半年當之無愧的贏家,幾乎佔據2022上半年美股ETF漲幅榜近半席位,在標普500指數中,能源板塊也成為唯一一個在上半年收漲的板塊。

眼看上半年投資能源類ETF的投資者賺得盆滿缽滿,轉眼步入下半年,能源類ETF的前景似乎不那麼穩定了,投資者需要注意油氣板塊及煤炭等能源類股票補跌的風險,尤其是近段時間國際油價出現大幅下跌,反映出市場對於全球經濟衰退的擔憂,認為或會抑制原油、燃料等大宗商品的需求。

而且,歐佩克+近期在會議上確認維持此前宣佈的產量配額調整方案,決定把8月份原油日產量配額提高64.8萬桶,將名義石油產量恢復到疫情前的水準。 增產的消息也令油價有所降溫,加上俄羅斯方面在積極尋找代替市場,6月的原油產量實際是不降反增。 這些因素可能會為下半年能源類ETF的表現帶來更多波動和不確定性,投資風險相比上半年大增,但可能會為反向ETF投資者帶來較大機遇。

在今年下半年,ETF投資者可以將更多重點放在留意一些賽道確定性較強,符合全球發展大勢,以及存在較高的增長潛力的領域,比如說首批8隻碳中和ETF即將在今年的7月初正式發行,低碳、光伏、儲能等相關產業鏈可能在下半年迎來機遇,加上低碳行業在ETF市場的歷史表現相對市場基準收益增長明顯並且適合穩健的長期投資者。

另外,國家工信部等5個部門早前支援綠色智慧家電下鄉及以舊換新行動,隨著內地疫情好轉,將進一步刺激居民消費意願,短期來看電力、家電等板塊可能會受政策提振。 另外,提倡智慧化、綠色環保的理念也讓新能源車以及相關電池行業的前景獲市場普遍看好,下半年投資者可以更多留意相關車企的業績表現,選擇適合自己的需求的標的資產,不過也要謹慎選擇新能源板塊中一些在上半年已經累計漲幅過多的個股。

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