差價合約是複雜的金融交易產品,可帶來由槓桿作用而導致迅速虧損的高風險。 大部分的零售投資者帳戶在跟交易差價合約時錄得資金虧損。您應當考慮您是否充分明白差價合約如何運作,以及您是否能承受您的資金損失的高風險。

市場押注今晚CPI繼續破表,美元上行通道會延續多久?

今晚,市場重點關注的經濟數據美國6月未季調CPI年率即將揭曉,該數據此前為8.60%,預計6月的數據會繼續上升至8.8%。 白宮新聞秘書卡·讓-皮埃爾早前已經提醒外界,隨著汽油和食品價格的大幅上漲,美國6月的消費者價格指數(CPI)將“大幅上升”。

如果真如市場所料,通脹水準繼續飆升,有可能會讓美聯儲的加息決定更加鷹派,大大增加在本月底美聯儲會議中加息75個基點的可能性,令美元近期持續走強。

us labor statistics

從目前市場預計看,美聯儲本月激進加息的可能性較大,會在短期為美元持續帶來上升動力,黃金價格有所承壓。 據CME“美聯儲觀察”,美聯儲到7月份加息50個基點的概率為17.4%,加息75個基點的概率為82.6%。

早前,美聯儲理事Michelle Bowman、芝加哥聯儲主席埃文斯Charles Evans、美聯儲理事Christopher Waller、明尼阿波利斯聯儲主席Neel Kashkari、舊金山聯儲主席Mary Daly均表示,支援7月再度加息75個基點以遏制通脹。 並且上月美聯儲公佈的「點陣圖」顯示,到今年年底,美聯儲基準利率將從目前1.5%-1.75%的目標區間升至3.4%。

市場都在靜待CPI轉捩點的來臨,有市場人士認為在6月至9月連續4個月CPI都會保持在8%的水準之上,因此高通脹對美國經濟的影響可能還會持續,尤其值得注意的是美國5月零售銷售月率公佈值為降低0.30%,預期增長0.2%,主要由於期內汽車銷售大減及汽車價格創新高影響,零售的意外下跌讓市場擔憂高通脹或者高利率提升融資成本拖累零售銷售。

另一方面,美元進入上升通道,美元指數已經衝破108關口,最高報108.2,漲幅超1.2%,續創2002年6月以來新高,目前還在保持上升。 由於市場普遍押注美聯儲激進加息,預計在美聯儲會議之前美元或會維持升勢,或出現高位震蕩,短線來說多頭將佔據優勢。

us cpi

但是,中長線看,美元後續走勢還要看美聯儲最終的加息決定,以及其對後續加息安排的指引,如果繼續表示遏制通脹的決心,預計美元高位震蕩的局面會直到通脹開始穩步回落。 當然,也要看通脹數據什麼時候真正出現轉折以及下降的幅度是否明顯,如果有明顯的轉捩點出現,美元走強的局面可能才會得到反轉。

此外,還需要留意經濟數據對美元可能帶來的負面影響,由於6月份美國非農就業人數增加37.2萬人,結果顯示優於市場預期,也讓市場對於美國經濟陷入衰退的擔憂暫時有所緩解,同時也增加了接下來會激進加息的預測。 但是,高盛的報告認為勞動力市場無疑還在放緩的過程中,還需要等待更多的數據出爐來佐證就業市場的實際表現。

在本周,美國還即將公佈6月零售數據,投資者也需要密切留意高通脹和大幅加息對零售和消費者信心帶來的持續衝擊,如果繼續呈現下行,恐怕零售板塊股票會再次迎來衝擊。

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